COVID-19 and Other Pandemics | Anarchy in the USA

[noddy]

I've found it helpful to get people on board in our network by emphasizing that we are 'preparing for' and not 'protecting against' the virus. We are not avoiding it, we are practicing ways to minimize our exposures as best as we are able.

And our greatest abilities to help ourselves were tied to consistency.

-Consistency in hygiene

-Consistency in diet

-Consistency in exercise&rest

-Consistency with travel [if necessary]

-Consistency in monitoring ourselves

If people want superstitions on top of that, I have been reticent to push against it. Arguing the point that the soap they like isn't magical in the midst of thing is not productive.

=============

To that, popular science has not been helpful. All these experts&amateurs going through media outlets and throwing statistics around have not been helpful.

Maybe to the extent of getting people to be aware that something is going on; but it's very hard for some people to climb off the 'abstractions ledge'

yeh, it is just pushing percentages of risk in various directions - you can get away with ignoring all of it if the dice roll well, you can still catch despite doing all the things (tm) if they dont.

many folks find that hard to grasp.

the 2 metre rule isnt absolute, a big sneeze indoors makes a mockery of it, yet it stops all the little day to day breath sharing, which is gross anyway and should be enforced from this day forward!

[noddy]

good points noddy and Napster. but horribly antiquated thinking. or rather only valid in some zip codes.

watching the news, it appears the experts and authorities in some strange far away lands have found the best prevention for COVID-19 overwhelming the local health care system is large public gatherings where the yuge masses of people throw bricks thru windows, set cars on fire, steal sh1t, and beat up strangers never would have met if they weren't practicing their religion.

seems like a religious ritual required by some ancient, tribal belief system. far be it from me to criticize the ancient belief systems of the aggrieved.

in the good ole days, we used to sacrifice virgins or set a goat on fire. too few goats or virgins in NYC these days I guess......

on the plus side, not only does the religion solve COVID-19, it local property more affordable....

wonder how many of the participants were abusing Trump for not doing enough lockdowns just weeks before.

[NapLajoieonSteroids]

yeh, it is just pushing percentages of risk in various directions - you can get away with ignoring all of it if the dice roll well, you can still catch despite doing all the things (tm) if they dont.

many folks find that hard to grasp.

the 2 metre rule isnt absolute, a big sneeze indoors makes a mockery of it, yet it stops all the little day to day breath sharing, which is gross anyway and should be enforced from this day forward!

It's what Defoe says, imagining the problem as the result of bad spirits one can ward off with the right rituals.

It's up there with thinking about it as cause & effect instead of event & outcome.

And throwing statistics at people, from my experience, revs up the cause & effect engines and so becomes counter-productive.

[noddy]

good point - that also ties into why I think the initital goverment response was required and a purely libertarian attitude would fall apart a bit.

the young and healthy, who dont have the old people in their lives would have a different baseline for rituals and wards to those who are more in the risk groups or have those people in their lives.

an official standard and acknowledgement of the issue helps nudge the low carefactor people up a notch, especially in city environments that avoiding random people is impossible.

all means nothing now, after a week of large public riots, erm, gatherings - sure hope the virulence of it has backed off a bit and the hospitals are on top of it now.

[Simple Minded]

wonder how many of the participants were abusing Trump for not doing enough lockdowns just weeks before.

not only the plebes, but their elitist masters.

Monday: "I hate Trump cause he's a fascist! Trump is Hitler!"
Tuesday: "I hate Trump cause he won't impose draconian lockdowns!"
Wednesday: "I hate Trump cause he won't take away our guns!"
Thursday: "People who don't social distance or self-quarantine are monsters who should be locked up!"
Friday: "Whadda ya doing this weekend? Lets call everyone we know and form a huge mob to protest!"

Not the sharpest knives in the drawer.

Act 3 is where the locals, either those who destroyed property or city officials who let property be destroyed, go to the airways to complain about the successful businesses moving out of the war zone, and how it will reduce the local tax base and hurt the..... wait for it......... community.

[kmich]

Berkeley Public Health Launches Free Course on Managing the COVID Pandemic

[Simple Minded]

Relative risk of death update.

2020 - May - 31 |1:32:47 PM EST

Global deaths attributed to COVID-19: 370,416

[Source: JHU - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6]

Level unchanged. Currently between "Parkinson's disease" and "Homicide"


annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.png


The US continues to lead in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

US deaths attributed to COVID-19: 104,051

Level unchanged. Currently between "Lower respiratory Infections" and "Digestive diseases".


annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause_USA.png


The number of deaths in the US attributed to COVID-19 on the order of 1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) of ~ 100,000 deaths in absolute numbers.

However, normalized by the population

COVID-19: (104,051 / 332,639,000) x 100 = 0.03%

H3N2 [1968]: (100,000 / 203,211,926) x 100 = 0.05%

the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 is lower.

CS, Where's the bar graph for "innocent black people shot dead by racist cops?" Some medical experts have said that is a bigger threat than COVID-19......

[Simple Minded]

As an online medical expert, I have studied the correlation between COVID-19 hot spots, and riot/protest hot spots, and it appears that contracting COVID-19 is fatal in some older people, but the higher hormone levels in younger people causes the virus to morph into Syphilis resulting in loss of cognition, emotional control, and general innumeracy and insanity.

[Simple Minded]

How come the headline "We Cured COVID-19!" isn't appearing anywhere?

[kmich]

Emergency COVID-19 measures prevented more than 500 million infections, study finds

[Typhoon]

Emergency COVID-19 measures prevented more than 500 million infections, study finds

I have two issues issues with these types of studies.

1. Models. Any model predictions are only as good as the underlying assumptions. If the assumptions are off, then it is GIGO.

The Imperial College model that was the basis for most of the lockdowns in the West was off by at least an order of magnitude.
Apparently IC has a history of doing so; hoof and mouth disease and avian flu

2. Reality. How well do such models work compared to reality.

The data are China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States. The data from two of the nations, China and Iran, are suspect at best.

The key factors in S Korea, Japan, and most notably Taiwan were early response, quarantining of travellers esp those from China, contact tracing after identification of hot spots, and the widespread availability and wearing of masks.

Not implements stringent lockdowns, so I can't help but wonder if this study is a post-fact justification of lockdowns in the West.

[Typhoon]

Relative risk of death update.

2020 - June - 14 | 12:33:12 PM

Global deaths attributed to COVID-19: 431,141

[Source: JHU - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6]

Up one level. Currently between "Homicide" and "Malaria"

annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause.png (607.2 KiB) Viewed 979 times

The US continues to lead in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

US deaths attributed to COVID-19: 115,521

Up one level. Currently between "Digestive diseases" and "[Other] Respiratory diseases"

annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause_USA.png (551.15 KiB) Viewed 979 times

[kmich]

[Doc]

Yet the death toll in the EU exceeds that of the US....

[kmich]

New U.S. COVID-19 cases surge 25% last week; Arizona, Florida and Texas set records.

America Is Reopening. But have we flattened the curve? New Case Trends in all 50 States

[Typhoon]

. . .

Yet the death toll in the EU exceeds that of the US....

Absolute numbers convey little, if any, information in this instance.
One should take the different population sizes into account - deaths per million or per capita.

daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average.png (5.4 MiB) Viewed 900 times

[noddy]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

[Doc]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

This has a long way to go. Just the beginning of the beginning. In fact there are reports of immunity after recovery being a few weeks in some cases. Which implies there will not be a vaccine.

In Beijing the CCP virus has now mutated. They are saying its transmissibility is now 10 times greater than it was previously.
Which implies everyone is going to get it.

Good news A study out of Indonesia say that 98.9% of people dying have a deficit of vitamin d. Only 4.1% of people with enough vitamin D died
qyMFsLFAE5o

[noddy]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

This has a long way to go. Just the beginning of the beginning. In fact there are reports of immunity after recovery being a few weeks in some cases. Which implies there will not be a vaccine.

In Beijing the CCP virus has now mutated. They are saying its transmissible is now 10 times greater than it was previously.
Which implies everyone is going to get it.

loss of tourism is a shame but not a tragedy to us - I expect we can stay border locked indefinitely (with 2 week quarantines for those that really want to visit or return)

[Simple Minded]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

the repubs are more afraid of the Orange virus than illegal immigration, COVID-19, or loss of freedom and capitalism.

as for those outside of DC and the big cities, life is pretty much unchanged unless you owned a business targeted by Big Brother..

COVID-19 could have been a great unifier, kinda like an Alien invasion from Mars. But too many petty tyrants out there are protecting their domains.

[kmich]

‘Coming back and biting us’: US sees virus resurgence

[Doc]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

the repubs are more afraid of the Orange virus than illegal immigration, COVID-19, or loss of freedom and capitalism.

as for those outside of DC and the big cities, life is pretty much unchanged unless you owned a business targeted by Big Brother..

COVID-19 could have been a great unifier, kinda like an Alien invasion from Mars. But too many petty tyrants out there are protecting their domains.

WHO killed 122,000 Americans ? WHO did the CCP did. WHO said Trump was a racist for putting travel restrictions on Travel from China. The American left did. So when are the criminal trials going to start?

[Doc]

my state has now removed all covid restrictions except the border controls, we can all live our quiet little lives away from globalism.

the american right has missed a once in a lifetime opportunity by being on the wrong side of this issue.

This has a long way to go. Just the beginning of the beginning. In fact there are reports of immunity after recovery being a few weeks in some cases. Which implies there will not be a vaccine.

In Beijing the CCP virus has now mutated. They are saying its transmissible is now 10 times greater than it was previously.
Which implies everyone is going to get it.

loss of tourism is a shame but not a tragedy to us - I expect we can stay border locked indefinitely (with 2 week quarantines for those that really want to visit or return)

More on Vitamin D

EP81YMvs4yI

[Simple Minded]

pretty good summary. fits a lot of threads.

https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/things ... rose-poem/

[Doc]

pretty good summary. fits a lot of threads.

https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/things ... rose-poem/

"It is 19 times more difficult to transmit the virus outdoors

."

Given that so many medical personnel have been infected: Probably true.

Seems like there is a minimum amount of virus needed to cause an infection. IE if you are in a room with someone that is shedding virus you are much more likely to get infected.

There are no known cases of re-infection.

Define "known"

You should know if you don’t take the disease seriously you could be responsible for someone dying. Unless you are protesting racism.

So according to Quillette it is OK to kill people if you are protesting against "Racism"? Is that killing by all means, or just by spreading the CCP virus?
Or are they saying that protesting racism stops the spread of the virus?