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Bryce Elder MAY 18 2022A neat theory to explain the productivity puzzle 2.0
It’s a well-researched oddity of the past few decades that as technology gets faster, people get slower. Digitisation of the workforce has failed to do what it promised and there is no agreement as to why.
Economist Robert Solow summarised the problem in 1987, saying: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Data keep on proving his point. All measures of IT spending have kept trending higher yet since 2005, rates of labour productivity growth at least halved in the US, UK, Japan, Germany and France.
This paradox (sometimes called the productivity puzzle 2.0, in observance of similar trend in the 1970s and 1980s) excites plenty of debate. It might be, as Robert Gordon has argued, that recent technological advances just aren’t that great relative to history. Perhaps, as Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake argue, the measure itself is becoming obsolete. Other popular theories involve some combination of structural headwinds, mismeasurement, lag effects, fiscal suppression and a long term return to the mean. What none capture is why constant incremental improvements, rather than arresting a weakening trend, appear to be contributing to it.
A paper from University of Lausanne PhD student Seda Basihos makes an interesting contribution to the debate. (Note: unreviewed preprint, there be dragons.) She argues that because of rapid obsolescence, computing is a uniquely pernicious force.
Computers are the worst thing to happen to the global economy in 150 years because . . . well, you will have probably guessed already. Every digital fix has a knack of creating three new problems. Any tweak threatens to invoke the recursive loop of pointless labour. A PC might look modular but it’s a morass of potential incompatibilities and performance bottlenecks, meaning entire corporate systems are junked whenever a software update or a withdrawal of OEM support prematurely terminates the usefulness of one part. And because of this accelerated replacement cycle, workers have to continually relearn their jobs.
Basihos’ paper takes as its starting point Microsoft’s launch of Windows 95. Exposure to the Brian Eno start-up sound coincided with a brief uptick in US worker productivity. In the longer term, however, the “permanent obsolescence shock” that followed might be responsible for roughly one-third of lost productivity growth, Basihos finds.
She suggests to think of the economy as an airline, where jets are capital stock and pilots are labour. Any replacement jet part that isn’t like-for-like will cause a potential mismatch, and every mismatch raises the likelihood of a plane ending up in the sea.
Airlines will generally try to crash no more frequently than their competitors, because planes that crash are very inefficient both in terms of capital allocation and labour productivity. A well-functioning, competitive market places the onus on airlines to keep pace with whatever incremental improvement any one airline rolls out, even when it requires Ship of Theseus style replacement of the whole fleet.
The pilots, meanwhile, have to retrain on new systems or retire. But retraining pilots isn’t such a priority, because learning to fly takes ages and the CEO keeps on promising Level 5 autonomy. The result: the income share going to capital increases, fewer new labour tasks are created so labour’s income share declines, and measured productivity goes into tailspin.
As well as positing a tidy solution to Solow’s paradox, the paper touches on tech rot as a possible explanation for the dislocations between R&D spending versus GDP growth, wages versus productivity, and business investment versus interest rates. Though it’s some distance from a fully worked thesis, it’s something to consider when contemplating the $10tn or thereabouts of equity wealth created by tech obsolescence (justifiable or by design) over the past couple of decades.
[The author typed this post on a 2008 Lenovo T500 running Windows Vista.]
The year is 2030 and we are at the world’s largest tech conference, CES in Las Vegas. A crowd is gathered to watch a big tech company unveil its new smartphone. The CEO comes to the stage and announces the Nyooro, containing the most powerful processor ever seen in a phone.
Researchers have identified the best silicon and silicon dioxide materials for the next generation of transistors, which are expected to be just a nanometer long.
DKB | Google Search Is DyingOne of the most-used tools on the internet is not what it used to be.
In other words agent Smith will easily be able to take over the AR undetected.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
AR is going to have to become considerably more convenient before it has a chance to become widely adopted.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
Consumer-grade sunglass/eyeglass sized AR devices will arrive within 4 years. They are already far along in development and internal prototypes already exist. There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.Typhoon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:57 pmAR is going to have to become considerably more convenient before it has a chance to become widely adopted.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
For example, it will have to be miniaturized to the point that eyeglasses with AR are indistinguishable from ordinary eyeglasses.
Or it may simply go the way of 3D TV.
It is not the glasses that are holding things up It is the slowness of the internet.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pmConsumer-grade sunglass/eyeglass sized AR devices will arrive within 4 years. They are already far along in development and internal prototypes already exist. There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.Typhoon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:57 pmAR is going to have to become considerably more convenient before it has a chance to become widely adopted.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
For example, it will have to be miniaturized to the point that eyeglasses with AR are indistinguishable from ordinary eyeglasses.
Or it may simply go the way of 3D TV.
I'll believe it when I see it.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pmConsumer-grade sunglass/eyeglass sized AR devices will arrive within 4 years. They are already far along in development and internal prototypes already exist.Typhoon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:57 pmAR is going to have to become considerably more convenient before it has a chance to become widely adopted.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
For example, it will have to be miniaturized to the point that eyeglasses with AR are indistinguishable from ordinary eyeglasses.
Or it may simply go the way of 3D TV.
Aside from a few highly specialized applications, perhaps such as architectural rendering walkthroughs, I don't expect a large market for HMDs.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pm There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.
These kind of displays have been out there for at least ten years in industrial grade versions. Boeing for example started using them to help wire its aircraft in manufacturing. They display the wiring diagram based on what the user is looking at. And it has been at least ten years, if not twenty. As far as consumer grade. .. I think there will be a lot of legal issues and issues with people complaining about/hating others using them As Typhon and Noddy said in their responses. My general sense is that people are getting more prone to unplug rather than be more plugged in.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pmConsumer-grade sunglass/eyeglass sized AR devices will arrive within 4 years. They are already far along in development and internal prototypes already exist. There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.Typhoon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:57 pmAR is going to have to become considerably more convenient before it has a chance to become widely adopted.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 8:48 pm Google Search will face even more headwinds in the AR future where information and experiences will be mediated by platform vendors, contained in non-indexable formats.
OTOH, Google is well positioned to create a wearable platform and parse the abundant data its sensors gather.
For example, it will have to be miniaturized to the point that eyeglasses with AR are indistinguishable from ordinary eyeglasses.
Or it may simply go the way of 3D TV.
7-nm is the actual limit of DUV lithography: The 5-nm and 3-nm processes developed by TSMC and Samsung will not work without EUV.
It is quite likely that the US government has until recently not tried or not been able to impose a ban on the sale of DUV equipment to China because it would have forced ASML to abandon a large and fast-growing market.
It would also have hurt second source supplier Nikon and had a severe knock-on impact on makers of other semiconductor production equipment, including American market leaders Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA.
Yes, you will. But riches and fame acrrue to those who believe, build, and make others see.
There are a number of great use cases for devices with different form factors:Aside from a few highly specialized applications, perhaps such as architectural rendering walkthroughs, I don't expect a large market for HMDs.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pm There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.
I may be proven to be completely wrong, but currently I suspect that HMDs will go the way of 3D TV.
Yes we are well aware of the implementation of the Social credit system. No Thanks I'll pass.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:10 am What's with this Spamhaus stuff? It's trying to blacklist me.
Yes, you will. But riches and fame acrrue to those who believe, build, and make others see.
There are a number of great use cases for devices with different form factors:Aside from a few highly specialized applications, perhaps such as architectural rendering walkthroughs, I don't expect a large market for HMDs.Zack Morris wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:44 pm There will be a few others released earlier, such as by Snapchat, but their intended use cases are not well aligned with what transparent AR HMDs will truly be useful for.
I may be proven to be completely wrong, but currently I suspect that HMDs will go the way of 3D TV.
1. Navigation, outdoor and indoor.
2. Fitness and health: calorie and consumption tracking, automatic workout tracking, marking and cycling and jogging routes and recording times, making the experience more connected and social.
3. Ubicomp: hands-free, less distracting communication letting you remain present in the world. No need to lug around a 0.5 lb screen in your pocket.
4. Contextual reminders: give me the information or nudge I need when I need it. At-a-glance visualization of your upcoming schedule. Shopping list as you leave work/enter the store. Spatial and object-associated long-running timers ("how long has it been since I've watered this plant? Vacuumed this carpet? Rotated my tires? Tended to this part of the garden?")
5. Supermemory: extract meaningful data points and action items from my conversations without recording them verbatim, automatically updating my knowledge bases. E.g., you bump into a colleague who mentions a cool new paper -- *clip*, link appears in your iMessage thread with them, system can place a world-locked reminder icon on your monitor bezel next time you're on your computer.
6. Exploration: what restaurants/coffee shops/bars/bookstores are around here in relation to me? Which of these places I'm looking at are actually decent? Which of them have been frequented by trusted friends or people whose opinion I trust? Where do people generally hang out on a Friday night in this town?
7. Instant knowledge: what kind of bird is that? Where can I buy those shoes? No need to reach for phone, wait for face unlock, find app, launch app, find section of app that opens camera, wait for camera, take photo. The next evolution of UX -- make the device disappear and get out of my way.
8. DIY: how do I reattach this slipped bike chain? How do I play this song on the piano?
9. Shared augmentation: instantly share a photo to another glass wearer without breaking the conversation flow and surrendering your phone to them. If they mention something you don't know (a song, a film, etc.), ask your devices and see a trivially dismissable info card for mutual reference anchored in the same location in space. Meeting a friend and wondering where to go next to grab a bite? Don't dive into your phones, just have a local map pulled out between you and decide on options together.
10. Music whenever you want it via extra-aural but still private speakers.
11. Capture + perspective share: "Wow, cool car!" *snap*
12. Custom UI anywhere: order a muffin from the table at the coffee shop with on-table UI.
13. Find my... anything. Where did I place my keys? "I'm here at Shinjuku station but where are you? Oh hang on, let me ask my glasses to direct me to your spot."
And on and on and on. It will happen slowly -- at first.
I took it as a Dad-joke. "Let that sink in."Nonc Hilaire wrote: ↑Fri Oct 28, 2022 1:38 pm Would someone please explain the Elon Musk “mobile-sink” joke?