On the Nature of Things | Forum

noddy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:34 am the question being how much is it bluff and bluster and how much its in progress and cant be stopped anymore,

noddy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 9:07 am Putin could be prepared to wager on the fact that we arent prepared to die for a bunch of eastern europeans, thusly MAD doesnt count.

Its just going to be another round of sanctions, and Russia is used to that.

noddy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 2:16 am One thinghs for certain, its the Anglosphere pretending to care for the Ukrainians - I really cant see France or Germany thinking they want to die for them.

NapLajoieonSteroids wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 8:45 am I have very little confidence in the five eyes international aspirations. All the people who were pushing for war with Russia during the Obama administration are back in the saddle and setting the agenda.

I also have very little confidence that Vladimir Putin will leave this earth without (most of?) the ukraine back within Russian territory. He is getting old and has waited a long time, maybe the time has come?

kmich wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:55 pm Ah, the French. Nurturing dreams of long past glories while being full of baguettes.

Putin is much like the gambler at the table, who, realizing the night is late, decides to throw in all his chips with a weak hand.

No nation moves over 150,000 troops to the north, east and south of a country complete with field hospitals unless action is in the planning.

The situation is not like Iraq's fictitious WMD, the build up can be seen by any nation with satellite imaging abilities. The contest now is one of messaging. The Biden administration states repeatedly that Russians are planning or going to invade based upon Russian force deployments which causes Putin to react with repeated denials. If a party to a conversation is reacting to your messaging, you control the messaging. If the Russians deny they are going to invade and then do so, they would look both feckless and mendacious.

But invasion is not what Putin wants. Putin undoubtedly viewed with contempt and as a sign of profound Western weakness Trump's ignorance and faithful bootlicking,

the January 6, 2021 attack on the capital, the endless contesting of the 2020 election, and a Republican party who continues to go along with it all due to the opportunity it offers their authoritarian ambitions for a one party state, the wet dream of aspiring tyrants and enemies of a free people throughout history.

These, combined with Brexit, the rise of illiberal regimes in Hungary and Poland,

German and French ambivalence about NATO ("brain dead" says Macron) along with a dictator's usual coterie of yes men telling him what he wants to hear - that NATO is obsolete and a new order in Europe could be compelled upon a weak and divided alliance. So, he decided to push the issue by putting a gun to Ukraine's head, while insisting he has no intention to pull the trigger and, after all, the West made him do it anyway.

What Putin has failed to understand is that NATO expansion was not a product of Western plot, but due to the nations of the Baltic states and eastern Europe, for understandable, centuries long historical reasons, looking to the west for their security arrangements. What his bullying and aggressive posturing has succeeded in doing is exactly what he did not want - NATO now has a purpose, and Ukraine and even other European nations are more likely than ever to seek a set of European alliances and relations. Putin is up a tree, and he can't get down without either engaging in a costly, unpredictable invasion or a humiliating retreat.

kmich wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:55 pm
Putin is much like the gambler at the table, who, realizing the night is late, decides to throw in all his chips with a weak hand.

No nation moves over 150,000 troops to the north, east and south of a country complete with field hospitals unless action is in the planning. The situation is not like Iraq's fictitious WMD, the build up can be seen by any nation with satellite imaging abilities. The contest now is one of messaging. The Biden administration states repeatedly that Russians are planning or going to invade based upon Russian force deployments which causes Putin to react with repeated denials. If a party to a conversation is reacting to your messaging, you control the messaging. If the Russians deny they are going to invade and then do so, they would look both feckless and mendacious.

But invasion is not what Putin wants. Putin undoubtedly viewed with contempt and as a sign of profound Western weakness Trump's ignorance and faithful bootlicking, the January 6, 2021 attack on the capital, the endless contesting of the 2020 election, and a Republican party who continues to go along with it all due to the opportunity it offers their authoritarian ambitions for a one party state, the wet dream of aspiring tyrants and enemies of a free people throughout history. These, combined with Brexit, the rise of illiberal regimes in Hungary and Poland, German and French ambivalence about NATO ("brain dead" says Macron) along with a dictator's usual coterie of yes men telling him what he wants to hear - that NATO is obsolete and a new order in Europe could be compelled upon a weak and divided alliance. So, he decided to push the issue by putting a gun to Ukraine's head, while insisting he has no intention to pull the trigger and, after all, the West made him do it anyway.

What Putin has failed to understand is that NATO expansion was not a product of Western plot, but due to the nations of the Baltic states and eastern Europe, for understandable, centuries long historical reasons, looking to the west for their security arrangements. What his bullying and aggressive posturing has succeeded in doing is exactly what he did not want - NATO now has a purpose, and Ukraine and even other European nations are more likely than ever to seek a set of European alliances and relations. Putin is up a tree, and he can't get down without either engaging in a costly, unpredictable invasion or a humiliating retreat.

YMix wrote: ↑Fri Feb 18, 2022 4:30 pm

kmich wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:55 pm
Putin is much like the gambler at the table, who, realizing the night is late, decides to throw in all his chips with a weak hand.

No nation moves over 150,000 troops to the north, east and south of a country complete with field hospitals unless action is in the planning. The situation is not like Iraq's fictitious WMD, the build up can be seen by any nation with satellite imaging abilities. The contest now is one of messaging. The Biden administration states repeatedly that Russians are planning or going to invade based upon Russian force deployments which causes Putin to react with repeated denials. If a party to a conversation is reacting to your messaging, you control the messaging. If the Russians deny they are going to invade and then do so, they would look both feckless and mendacious.

But invasion is not what Putin wants. Putin undoubtedly viewed with contempt and as a sign of profound Western weakness Trump's ignorance and faithful bootlicking, the January 6, 2021 attack on the capital, the endless contesting of the 2020 election, and a Republican party who continues to go along with it all due to the opportunity it offers their authoritarian ambitions for a one party state, the wet dream of aspiring tyrants and enemies of a free people throughout history. These, combined with Brexit, the rise of illiberal regimes in Hungary and Poland, German and French ambivalence about NATO ("brain dead" says Macron) along with a dictator's usual coterie of yes men telling him what he wants to hear - that NATO is obsolete and a new order in Europe could be compelled upon a weak and divided alliance. So, he decided to push the issue by putting a gun to Ukraine's head, while insisting he has no intention to pull the trigger and, after all, the West made him do it anyway.

What Putin has failed to understand is that NATO expansion was not a product of Western plot, but due to the nations of the Baltic states and eastern Europe, for understandable, centuries long historical reasons, looking to the west for their security arrangements. What his bullying and aggressive posturing has succeeded in doing is exactly what he did not want - NATO now has a purpose, and Ukraine and even other European nations are more likely than ever to seek a set of European alliances and relations. Putin is up a tree, and he can't get down without either engaging in a costly, unpredictable invasion or a humiliating retreat.

This is such a nice rendition of Western propaganda, it brought a tear to my cynical eye. It's like the past 20-odd years never happened. It's like the US never gave the word "rendition" a special meaning. Ah, the good old days when people still bought the "US defending freedom" crap. Before NATO wrecked Afghanistan, before the US ruined Irak, before the US intervention led to slave markets in Libya, before the US turned a blind eye to Gulf States arming jihadists in Syria, before heaps of (mostly) civilians died for no discernible increase in freedom.

To live in 2022 and still think the US gives a crap about the freedom of the average Ukrainian...

noddy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 9:07 am I do wonder if the MAD doctrine is starting to acquire new flavour.

Putin could be prepared to wager on the fact that we arent prepared to die for a bunch of eastern europeans, thusly MAD doesnt count.

Its just going to be another round of sanctions, and Russia is used to that.

kmich wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:55 pm

YMix wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 5:17 pm As far as I heard, French analysts speculate openly on TV that the US wants to create Irak 2.0 on the EU border in order to undermine the EU.

Ah, the French. Nurturing dreams of long past glories while being full of baguettes.

Putin is much like the gambler at the table, who, realizing the night is late, decides to throw in all his chips with a weak hand.

No nation moves over 150,000 troops to the north, east and south of a country complete with field hospitals unless action is in the planning. The situation is not like Iraq's fictitious WMD, the build up can be seen by any nation with satellite imaging abilities. The contest now is one of messaging. The Biden administration states repeatedly that Russians are planning or going to invade based upon Russian force deployments which causes Putin to react with repeated denials. If a party to a conversation is reacting to your messaging, you control the messaging. If the Russians deny they are going to invade and then do so, they would look both feckless and mendacious.

But invasion is not what Putin wants. Putin undoubtedly viewed with contempt and as a sign of profound Western weakness Trump's ignorance and faithful bootlicking, the January 6, 2021 attack on the capital, the endless contesting of the 2020 election, and a Republican party who continues to go along with it all due to the opportunity it offers their authoritarian ambitions for a one party state, the wet dream of aspiring tyrants and enemies of a free people throughout history. These, combined with Brexit, the rise of illiberal regimes in Hungary and Poland, German and French ambivalence about NATO ("brain dead" says Macron) along with a dictator's usual coterie of yes men telling him what he wants to hear - that NATO is obsolete and a new order in Europe could be compelled upon a weak and divided alliance. So, he decided to push the issue by putting a gun to Ukraine's head, while insisting he has no intention to pull the trigger and, after all, the West made him do it anyway.

What Putin has failed to understand is that NATO expansion was not a product of Western plot, but due to the nations of the Baltic states and eastern Europe, for understandable, centuries long historical reasons, looking to the west for their security arrangements. What his bullying and aggressive posturing has succeeded in doing is exactly what he did not want - NATO now has a purpose, and Ukraine and even other European nations are more likely than ever to seek a set of European alliances and relations. Putin is up a tree, and he can't get down without either engaging in a costly, unpredictable invasion or a humiliating retreat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized the independence of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The head of the Kremlin announced this to Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening. Putin then signed treaties of friendship with the breakaway territories following a televised address.

This was preceded by an appeal by the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. This paves the way for Russia to invade the territories.