Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Nonc Hilaire]

Twitter is a globalist mouthpiece. No need for profit (which is impossible) just money laundering and propaganda.

Musk has created the possibility of suing the board for malfeasance. Next comes discovery.

Twitter should have worn gloves when installing that poison pill. They got some on their fingers.

[Heracleum Persicum]

Twitter is a globalist mouthpiece. No need for profit (which is impossible) just money laundering and propaganda.

Musk has created the possibility of suing the board for malfeasance. Next comes discovery.

Twitter should have worn gloves when installing that poison pill. They got some on their fingers.

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The New Yorker
Why Would Elon Musk Want to Buy Twitter ?

His acquisition quest appears to be less about increasing the company’s profits—“This is not a way to sort of make money,” he has said—than preserving Twitter’s capacity for chaos as a tool for himself and others to continue influencing their vast audiences without interference. “I think it’s very important for there to be an inclusive arena for free speech,” Musk said, during a ted-conference interview in Vancouver, on April 14th. “Having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization.” Even before his stock purchase was made public, Musk was tweeting to question if Twitter actually adhered to free-speech principles, and he has complained about the opacity of its algorithmic feed, its lack of an Edit button, and how some of its most popular accounts, including Barack Obama’s, have been posting less and less on the service.

Some truth to it .. Trump president time, thanks to Trump, America was run by tweeting .. not anymore

Twitter as "arbittor" of user was and is wrong .. everybody should be allowed to use it and take the responsibility

No good not hearing from Donald often as B4
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[Nonc Hilaire]

Musk is merely providing the means for globalist asset Twitter to destroy itself.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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Taipei Times
TSMC founder Morris Chang
TSMC assumption that its Oregon chips would cost similar to chips in Taiwan was
‘naive’

The US’ efforts to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors is wasteful and an expensive exercise in futility due to a lack of manufacturing talent and high costs, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) founder Morris Chang (張忠謀) said on Tuesday.

Chang made the remarks in an interview with the Brookings Institution in its latest podcast on the theme “Can semiconductor manufacturing return to the US?”

The semiconductor veteran said that the US today still has a good position in the semiconductor technology industry in terms of chip design capacity, but it lacks sufficient manufacturing talent.

Yes, no manufacturing talent, capacity

“I don’t really think it is a bad thing for the US actually. But, it’s a bad thing for trying to do semi manufacturing in the US,” Chang said.

..

Another challenge is high manufacturing costs, Chang said.

For example, TSMC thought that its factory in Oregon, which was established in 1997, would have costs comparable to Taiwan, but that assumption was proved to be “naive,” he said.

..

Chips made at the Oregon factory cost 50 percent more than those make TSMC’s factories in Taiwan, Chang said.

..

Commenting on the US government’s efforts to increase onshore chip manufacturing by spending tens of billions dollars, Chang said: “I think it will be a very expensive exercise in futility.”

“The US will increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors somewhat,” Chang said. “All that will be at a very high cost increase, high unit costs, but non-competitive in the world market when you compete with factories like TSMC.”

Regarding Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s remarks that “Taiwan is not safe,” Chang said he assumes that there will not be a war.

“If there is no war, then I think the efforts to increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors is a wasteful and expensive exercise in futility," he said. “If there is a war, we all have a lot more than just chips to worry about.”

Morris Chang knows what he talking about. The only way for U. S. chips to be competitive worldwide is for the US-$ to have a significant devaluation relative to other currencies, say 25% or more.


There ZERO doubt "Dramatic Devaluation of U$" just around the corner, ZERO doubt
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[Heracleum Persicum]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/busi ... nions.html

The Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class

Over the past decade-and-a-half, many young, college-educated workers have faced a disturbing reality: that it was harder for them to reach the middle class than for previous generations. The change has had profound effects — driving shifts in the country’s politics and mobilizing employees to demand fairer treatment at work. It may also be giving the labor movement its biggest lift in decades.

Members of this college-educated working class typically earn less money than they envisioned when they went off to school. “It’s not like anyone is expecting to make six figures,” said Tyler Mulholland, who earns about $23 an hour as a sales lead at REI, the outdoor equipment retailer, and holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in education. “But when it’s snow storming at 11:30 at night, I don’t want to have to think, ‘Is the Uber home going to make a difference in my weekly budget?’”

Now, college education waste of time .. now, service, Plumbers and Electricians make good money

Plumber, electricians do not compete with Indian and Chinese Plumber, electricians .. College educated do
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[Heracleum Persicum]

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Huawei defeats US chip ban
post record profits

Huawei’s net profits surged from 64.6 billion yuan in 2020 to a record of 113.7 billion yuan ($17.22 billion) in 2021, a remarkable 75.9% jump.

The company attributed the gains in profitability to investments in innovation, improvements to operating efficiency and rebalancing of its product lines to focus on more profitable business segments that are not affected by the sanctions.

..

.. Huawei’s rotating chairman Guo Ping hinted that more innovations were in store to help mitigate the impact of the chip ban, indicating that the company would begin using advanced chip-packaging technology. Chinese industry experts at the World Semiconductor Conference held in Nanjing in June of last year had called on the company to pursue the technology.

Speaking to the South China Morning Post, chip-packaging technology expert Wang Min explained that Huawei may be able to use one of two possible solutions to work around the US chip ban: First, the company can “use larger nodes to produce chips at the expense of power consumption,” or alternatively, it can “assemble different types of chips that can bought in an SiP [system in package] to make a complete final chip.”

..

Against that backdrop, it is perhaps noteworthy that the company’s 2021 financial results were announced by CFO Meng Wanzhou, in her first major public appearance since her release – an apt symbol of Huawei’s phoenix-like rise from the ashes of what were expected by industry experts to be ruinous sanctions.

Far from suffering a “lethal blow” from the sanctions, by successfully negotiating its way through the sanctions minefield, Huawei may in fact have provided another demonstration of the natural limits of economic sanctions.
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As said before , Sanction, if handled well, can be beneficial
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[noddy]

https://www.connectedtoindia.com/india- ... -9939.html

India, EU vow to deepen trade, technology ties amid geopolitical shifts

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have agreed to foster ties in trade, technology and security amid rising geopolitical changes.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-ramps ... 1651142115


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... hases.html

Iran’s oil exports jumped by 30 percent from last year to 870,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Iran sells its crude oil almost exclusively to China and has never stopped those sales since former President Trump re-imposed the sanctions against Tehran in 2018. Currently, China is also emboldened to import more Iranian crude, not expecting to be hit by secondary sanctions by the U.S. for dealing with Iran “because Washington has its plate full with Russia,” ..

During the Iranian year that ended on March 20, 2022, Iran’s oil exports rose by over 40 percent, ..
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There no Oil Sanctions against iran anymore .. mad mullahs can sell as much as they can produce .. West loves it as it reduces Oil price

All Russian Oil now is sold in "spot market" with 20-30 $/b discount .. India, Europe and "Far Eastern" independent refiners are the buyers.

Russia was selling that Oil to Eu for 50-60 $/b last yrs , now , even with discount, Russia gets 80+ $/b .. good enough

All Olygarch now spending their money inside Russia ..

Notion Russia in difficulty "naive" .. the guy was preparing for this at least last 10 yrs
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[Heracleum Persicum]

p.jpeg (94.43 KiB) Viewed 3040 times

[Heracleum Persicum]

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Biden reversing most "Tariffs" Trump imposed on China goods

Trump did not understand those "tariffs" are paid by American consumers and not by Chinese producers ..


David Goldman
US imports from China in April reached an all-time record
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[Typhoon]

p.jpeg

Canada may be setting itself up for a Japanese bubble economy scale property bust.

[Typhoon]

UnHerd | Corporations are not greedy enough

Economists are divorced from reality

American political debates over inflation have settled into predictable — and mostly unhelpful — patterns. On one side, “neoliberal” Democrats such as Lawrence Summers and Jason Furman argue that President Biden’s Covid stimulus bill was too aggressive, causing the economy to overheat and precipitating an inflationary wage-price spiral. On the other, progressives such as Elizabeth Warren and members of the Biden administration point to factors like idiosyncratic supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and later the Ukraine war, while increasingly leaning on explanations involving “corporate greed”. Republicans, meanwhile, are eager to blame Biden for inflation, but have added nothing of substance to discussions around either its causes or cures.

The conventional inflation narratives are both flawed, however, and are increasingly deployed to cover a retreat to the comfort of traditional ideological divides. . . .

. . .

Julius Krein is the editor of American Affairs

[Typhoon]

Shadow Government Statistics - John Williams | Alternate Inflation Charts

The US Federal Reserve targets inflation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snTaSJk0n_Y

snTaSJk0n_Y

with Major Kong as US Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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Perfect economic storm
Worst drop in real paychecks on record
Actual inflation rate is close to 11%, the real drop in earnings is 7%

Inflation was already roaring in February when oil traded at $88 a barrel, before US sanctions on Russian oil raised the price paid by US and European consumers. Russia continues to export oil to India, China and others at discounts of more than $30 a barrel, that is, at roughly the prevailing price before the Ukraine war.

The sanctions didn’t slow Russia, but they clobbered Western consumers.
.

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[Typhoon]

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Perfect economic storm
Worst drop in real paychecks on record
Actual inflation rate is close to 11%, the real drop in earnings is 7%

Inflation was already roaring in February when oil traded at $88 a barrel, before US sanctions on Russian oil raised the price paid by US and European consumers. Russia continues to export oil to India, China and others at discounts of more than $30 a barrel, that is, at roughly the prevailing price before the Ukraine war.

The sanctions didn’t slow Russia, but they clobbered Western consumers.
.

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Nope.

As much as you would like it to be the case, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not the cause of inflation in the West. It's a minor perturbation.

Rather, if one creates/prints trillions of dollars/euros/yen within the space of two years, then one should not be surprised that inflation follows.

Given Spenglerman's track record of geopolitical prediction, "Russia will not invade Ukraine",
his analyses should be take with a very large grain of salt or simply ignored.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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After 50 years of debt based monetary policy and debt based economic “growth” there are only two options left

LOL.jpeg (49.54 KiB) Viewed 2951 times

This is why all the major powers want a world wide war…
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[Heracleum Persicum]

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Americans face
20% inflation for essentials

.. the real inflation rate is 20%, the highest in US history.

Rent, food, energy and automobiles account for 63% of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), but for the majority of US families, they make up the vast majority of monthly expenditures.

[Zack Morris]

Twitter is a globalist mouthpiece. No need for profit (which is impossible) just money laundering and propaganda.

Musk has created the possibility of suing the board for malfeasance. Next comes discovery.

Twitter should have worn gloves when installing that poison pill. They got some on their fingers.

Globalist mouthpiece lol. It’s a place to form communities and reach people with ideas.

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

[Typhoon]

Twitter is a globalist mouthpiece. No need for profit (which is impossible) just money laundering and propaganda.

Musk has created the possibility of suing the board for malfeasance. Next comes discovery.

Twitter should have worn gloves when installing that poison pill. They got some on their fingers.

Globalist mouthpiece lol. It’s a place to form communities and reach people with ideas.

The only people that take Twitter seriously are the mentally unstable . . . and journalists.

Sometimes one and the same.

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

Amusing how Musk went from hero to zero for espousing incorrect views.

[Zack Morris]

The only people that take Twitter seriously are the mentally unstable . . . and journalists.

Sometimes one and the same.

Twitter is whatever you want it to be. It's especially popular among creatives, engineers, and scientists. You only know about Journalism Twitter because you consume Old Media -- what journalists produce -- and hence are exposed only to their version of Twitter. There's also Machine Learning Twitter (where the modern ML equivalent of the Salvoy Conference hangs out), Paleontology Twitter, Pornography Twitter, VR Twitter, Game Dev Twitter, Warzone Twitter, History Twitter, etc.

For any tech entrepreneur -- whether you're building yet another app or working in deep tech -- Twitter is an incredible resource for staying abreast of the competition and discovering talented people.

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

Amusing how Musk went from hero to zero for espousing incorrect views.

Freedom of speech doesn't imply freedom from consequences.

Hitler also went from hero to zero

[Doc]

The only people that take Twitter seriously are the mentally unstable . . . and journalists.

Sometimes one and the same.

Twitter is whatever you want it to be. It's especially popular among creatives, engineers, and scientists. You only know about Journalism Twitter because you consume Old Media -- what journalists produce -- and hence are exposed only to their version of Twitter. There's also Machine Learning Twitter (where the modern ML equivalent of the Salvoy Conference hangs out), Paleontology Twitter, Pornography Twitter, VR Twitter, Game Dev Twitter, Warzone Twitter, History Twitter, etc.

For any tech entrepreneur -- whether you're building yet another app or working in deep tech -- Twitter is an incredible resource for staying abreast of the competition and discovering talented people.

So you considered authoritarians "Talented people"?

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

Amusing how Musk went from hero to zero for espousing incorrect views.

Freedom of speech doesn't imply freedom from consequences.

Hitler also went from hero to zero

Freedom of speech under the US constitution is protected from consequences for a reason.

Do you have any idea why that is?

Twitter will be gone the way of my space very soon without Musk buying it. Even if he did buy it, it is probably already too late tp save it. Imagine a company with a profit of $129 million currently being worth 29 billion dollars in stock value.

[Doc]

Twitter is a globalist mouthpiece. No need for profit (which is impossible) just money laundering and propaganda.

Musk has created the possibility of suing the board for malfeasance. Next comes discovery.

Twitter should have worn gloves when installing that poison pill. They got some on their fingers.

Globalist mouthpiece lol. It’s a place to form communities and reach people with ideas.

The only people that take Twitter seriously are the mentally unstable . . . and journalists.

Sometimes one and the same.

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

Amusing how Musk went from hero to zero for espousing incorrect views.

[Nonc Hilaire]

59F7F1A8-D26D-41A1-B82A-4E51DCD249C3.jpeg (222.27 KiB) Viewed 2836 times

[Typhoon]

The only people that take Twitter seriously are the mentally unstable . . . and journalists.

Sometimes one and the same.

Twitter is whatever you want it to be. It's especially popular among creatives, engineers, and scientists. You only know about Journalism Twitter because you consume Old Media -- what journalists produce -- and hence are exposed only to their version of Twitter. \

Amusing that you presume to know how I spend my time and what I read.

There's also Machine Learning Twitter (where the modern ML equivalent of the Salvoy Conference hangs out), Paleontology Twitter, Pornography Twitter, VR Twitter, Game Dev Twitter, Warzone Twitter, History Twitter, etc.

That's "Solvay Conference" [1927].

ML, of the neural network kind, is still a purely empirical "black box" method.
The comparison to the founders of QM, statistical thermodynamics, and GR is laughable.
Legends in your [and their?] own mind.

For any tech entrepreneur -- whether you're building yet another app or working in deep tech -- Twitter is an incredible resource for staying abreast of the competition

Perhaps, if one's understanding of "deep tech" is yet another taxi-hailing app,

and discovering talented people.

Mostly self-promotion BS.

If I want to keep abreast of my fields, the Researcher app as in "Just the abstracts, Ma'am", arXiv, and Google Scholar / Base / ScienceOpen are the way to proceed.

No need to waste time filtering all the social media noise, esp humblebragging, on Twitter.

Hopefully Twitter pursues Musk for the $1B breakup fee he owes them. Musk likely never had any intention to buy Twitter and wanted an excuse to unload Tesla stock. Had the stock not subsequently tanked, the deal would have moved along further before he trotted out this ludicrous bot story.

Amusing how Musk went from hero to zero for espousing incorrect views.

Freedom of speech doesn't imply freedom from consequences.

Certainly true in the current intolerant and toxic doxing and cancel culture environment in the US.

Hitler also went from hero to zero

3ToEvz-7trY

Comparing Musk to Hitler is infantile at best.

[Nonc Hilaire]

Iran pegs to the ruble.

https://www.rt.com/business/559241-iran ... ble-trade/