Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Now, what news on the Rialto?
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.


A massive China dump of US bonds is
the biggest risk facing markets



. . back to 2009 when then-premier Wen Jiabao raised concern about Washington’s trustworthiness to safeguard vast Chinese state wealth. Wen was particularly worried about the scale of bailouts amid the Lehman Brothers crisis.

“We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States,” Wen complained 13 years back. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried."

He urged Washington “to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”

Big geopolitical forces work against and for U$ Dollar .. that is why Dollar still standing .. but , for sure slipping
.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Hutchinson | The investment banking down cycle
In a sense, the investment banking surge ended 14 years ago. The financialization of the U.S. economy between 1982 and 2007 was extraordinary; it involved major new product areas such as derivatives and securitization and saw investment banking techniques push into many areas of the economy that had hitherto been immune to them, with industrial companies hedging commodity prices, playing derivatives games, granting copious stock options and indulging in massive stock buybacks, all of which cast a pall of fog over the real returns and profitability of the industrial sector.

The investment banking industry’s creativity largely ended in 2008, when many of its products were shown to be dangerous scams and its risk management was shown to be a travesty, but the funny-money years of the 2010s prolonged the investment banking boom artificially. While trading revenues did only moderately well, deal fees exploded, with the plethora of hedge funds and private equity funds ensuring a steady stream of bumper revenues. Entirely new scams involving Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) were devised, boosting fees still further – except that these scams were not really new; they had been equally prominent in the 1690s and the days of the South Sea Bubble.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Doc »

Heracleum Persicum wrote: Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:30 pm .


A massive China dump of US bonds is
the biggest risk facing markets



. . back to 2009 when then-premier Wen Jiabao raised concern about Washington’s trustworthiness to safeguard vast Chinese state wealth. Wen was particularly worried about the scale of bailouts amid the Lehman Brothers crisis.

“We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States,” Wen complained 13 years back. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried."

He urged Washington “to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”

Big geopolitical forces work against and for U$ Dollar .. that is why Dollar still standing .. but , for sure slipping
.
China has been "dumping" US bonds for several years now. They have been selling them off slowly as not to cut their own throats by destroying the value of the bonds they are trying to sell. They are already in deep financial trouble due to their self inflicted zero COVID policies. Their local governments are broke due to their corrupt housing markets. Their banks have run out of money. The survival of the CCP is in the balance. People are refusing to pay their mortgages for their yet to be completed homes. Homes that are not even being worked on because the big Chinese developers are out of money and are at risk of going bankrupt.

Basically the whole housing industry in China is a Ponzi scheme.

If the CCP can't "convince" its people to eat grass then the CCP is finished.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Doc post wrote:
Basically the whole housing industry in China is a Ponzi scheme.


Housing market worldwide is a "Ponzi scheme" .. worldwide
.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Heracleum Persicum wrote: Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:02 pm
Doc post wrote:
Basically the whole housing industry in China is a Ponzi scheme.


Housing market worldwide is a "Ponzi scheme" .. worldwide
.
Everything counts in all amounts.

As always, it's a question of scale.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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May the gods preserve and defend me from self-righteous altruists; I can defend myself from my enemies and my friends.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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mSHBma0Ithk

Nice but naive.
Deep down I'm very superficial
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Miss_Faucie_Fishtits »

Economics and Democracy Are Two Sides of the Same Coin(Myth 1)
In China, however, growth has come in the context of stable communist rule, suggesting that democracy and growth are not inevitably mutually dependent. In fact, many Chinese believe that the country’s recent economic achievements—large-scale poverty reduction, huge infrastructure investment, and development as a world-class tech innovator—have come about because of, not despite, China’s authoritarian form of government. Its aggressive handling of Covid-19—in sharp contrast to that of many Western countries with higher death rates and later, less-stringent lockdowns—has, if anything, reinforced that view.

China has also defied predictions that its authoritarianism would inhibit its capacity to innovate. It is a global leader in AI, biotech, and space exploration. Some of its technological successes have been driven by market forces: People wanted to buy goods or communicate more easily, and the likes of Alibaba and Tencent have helped them do just that. But much of the technological progress has come from a highly innovative and well-funded military that has invested heavily in China’s burgeoning new industries. This, of course, mirrors the role of U.S. defense and intelligence spending in the development of Silicon Valley. But in China the consumer applications have come faster, making more obvious the link between government investment and products and services that benefit individuals. That’s why ordinary Chinese people see Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Huawei, and TikTok as sources of national pride—international vanguards of Chinese success—rather than simply sources of jobs or GDP, as they might be viewed in the West.
https://hbr.org/2021/05/what-the-west-g ... bout-china
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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I would argue that PR China made its rapid advance for two reasons:

1. A tolerance of private markets initiated by Deng Xiao Ping.

2. Starting from a very low base with lots of inexpensive labour.

In other words, PR China made it's rapid advances not because of the CCP, but despite it.

With Red Emperor Xi returning to massive CCP political interference in business, I suspect that things will go downhill from here.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Physics pholks put your thinking caps on.

Everybody uses the silly domino or Jenga model of the impending financial collapse. With the economy so interlocked these linear models are not adequate.

Is there a physics model that might be more descriptive?
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Doc »

The mother of all globalist Financial Armageddon is here. It not just China. It is the entire world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjKGPCcY4GY

NjKGPCcY4GY

I have watched this guys videos for a couple of years. He has a lot to say.


3.8 million about to be evicted from their apartments and homes for non payment.:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arWSHsL06hA

arWSHsL06hA

Leading up to the 2008 housing crisis the banks were separating ownership of mortgages from the home titles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BSyHjp-W6A

9BSyHjp-W6A

The banks don't have the cash while more and more people are lining up to withdraw theirs. How do you define a bank run again?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWHJppWO678

hWHJppWO678

Little senior at the Social security office window. There are no SS and Medicare seeds for you today, Only death

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fxZINX6tFU

5fxZINX6tFU
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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One has to conclude that after 100 years of banking with big bigger biggest booms and busts... nothing changed. That the financial industry has won.

Financial monopoly: speculation, futures, leveraged secure-my-dog poo packages and swapping brainless bonds, orgastically printing more and more money, with central banks managed by centrally planning bureaucrats. Which in turn leeds to the inevitable collapse of the free market economy under centralized, monopolistic rule. America booms, then China busts. The bigger the better.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Doc »

Parodite wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:07 pm One has to conclude that after 100 years of banking with big bigger biggest booms and busts... nothing changed. That the financial industry has won.
That has been the SOP of Wall street since its founding. You can go back and read accounts of this from the original muckraker
https://www.amazon.com/Autobiography-L ... 597140163
Financial monopoly: speculation, futures, leveraged secure-my-dog poo packages and swapping brainless bonds, orgastically printing more and more money, with central banks managed by centrally planning bureaucrats. Which in turn leeds to the inevitable collapse of the free market economy under centralized, monopolistic rule. America booms, then China busts. The bigger the better.
"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Parodite »

Lot of irony in the world of bankster-prankster gangsters. Their best advice to customers is always: diversification, proper risk management. It makes you feel as if they really care about your best interest! Yet as an industry they do the opposite: more and more risk accumulation, bigger bubbles and bigger bursts. The always dirty but not so secret of course being: capitalize gains and socialize the losses. Communist fascism. Always able to put up enormous smoke screens, diversions to distract from the rigged regulations they created with their henchmen. Trump has at least some human (clownesque!) features, but those people are truly soulless.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Parodite »

5jhCAhfLgOI

Volcker, parhaps the best home physician the US had to diagnose and treat the patient: a rogue financial industry pushing the country to the edge of the abyss. But I can't help but conclude that his "Volckert rule" was more like a rationed amount of heroin given to the addict; "only one shot a weak, no more!". The street hustlers never stopped dealing. For effective rehab much more is needed. But it is too late. Only a huge crash will clean the barn.
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Heracleum Persicum
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

.

US becoming ‘developing country’ on global rankings

US slides down various development, democracy and equality rankings


https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/us-becomi ... -rankings/


The US is also now considered a “flawed democracy,” according to The Economist’s democracy index.


Hmmmm
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

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US doomed, Russia doomed, China doomed, EU doomed, Africa and South+Middle America remain doomed. This will cause Iran and Israel become best friends, lo and behold! Old Persian and Jewish wisdom... new Empire will rise!
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Heracleum Persicum »

Parodite wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:12 am US doomed, Russia doomed, China doomed, EU doomed, Africa and South+Middle America remain doomed. This will cause Iran and Israel become best friends, lo and behold! Old Persian and Jewish wisdom... new Empire will rise!

https://www.rt.com/news/563244-hungary-turns-to-east/


As now everything Russian is free in west , here the RT article for those who can not access it due to EU ban for RT (using VPN will fix this .. West promoting VPN use in Mullah land :lol: )



By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal.

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Uzbekistan has prompted a geo-economic earthquake, as Eurasian giants such as China, India, Russia, Pakistan and Iran are integrating their economies to new levels.

Meanwhile, Turkey wants to be the first NATO country to join the group.

The aftershocks of the meeting are also being felt in Europe. More specifically, as I sit here at the Budapest Economic Forum, organised by the Central Bank of Hungary, I can feel the Samarkand Spirit of the SCO, as a Eurasian future is being charted.

The collapse of the international economic system

Liberal international economic systems tend to form when there is a concentration of economic power under a strong leader. With an immense concentration of fiscal heft, the collective West was able to act as a “benign hegemon” that could deliver public goods and create trust in a stable international economic order. This was the European Union that Hungary integrated into in the 1990s when the US was the sole superpower and the EU was considered a locomotive for economic and social prosperity across the continent.

However, three decades later the world is a very different place. The EU’s relative share of the global economy continues its steady decline as industrial competitiveness deteriorates, debt reaches unsustainable heights, and the future of the euro looks grim. In the US, the economic picture and issues with political stability also give cause for concern.

Brussels is also incapable of facilitating wider cooperation. The bloc was never able to accommodate Russia, the largest state on the continent, causing a revival of Cold War dynamics. The British demand for preserving the political sovereignty of national parliaments could not be accommodated, and Britain thus left the EU. It now appears there is also no room in the European tent for the conservative aspirations of Hungary and Poland. As the bloc threatens to suspend billions in funds to Hungary, it becomes more difficult to preserve political independence.

When an economic hegemon is in relative decline, the international economic system begins to fragment. To defend their position in the international system, the US and EU use economic coercion against both allies and adversaries. The West disrupts the supply chains of rival powers such as China and Russia to prevent their rise, while friends and allies such as India, Turkey and Hungary are also punished for failing to display geoeconomic loyalty. Subsequently, the unipolar era is over. The West is no longer capable of acting as a benign hegemon by providing public goods or administrating an international economic system based on trust.

Eurasia rising

The international economic system is fragmenting as economic dependencies formed over the past decades are weaponised. A multitude of problems ranging from disruptive technologies, war and environmental degradation threaten the world, yet the necessary cooperation is faltering. It is evident that the unipolar order is already over, and a multipolar order is emerging in its place to revive economic connectivity and restore stability.

This is facilitated by the Greater Eurasian partnership, which entails the development of a new multipolar geoeconomic ecosystem. The countries on the Eurasian super-continent are developing connectivity between their technological hubs and financial hubs, while connecting physically with huge infrastructure projects to form new transportation corridors.

Budapest’s objective is to become a key node in the new Eurasian geoeconomic ecosystem and to revive economic connectivity in a multipolar format. Hungary was the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to sign a currency swap agreement with China, and the first in Europe to join China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Not only is Budapest connecting itself closer to the growth engine of Asia, but it is also setting itself up as a bridge between the East and West.

Hungary is also resisting further sanctions on Russia to maintain access to energy resources. Simply put, Eurasia is reviving globalisation.

A conservative path
Hungary’s Eurasian path is also consistent with its conservative aspirations. After decades of communism and the development of Marxist Man, Hungary naturally seeks to restore the role of national culture, the Church and traditional values in its national consciousness.

As new technologies and rampant market forces cause disruptions, it is necessary to balance change with continuity. Conservatism therefore anchors stability in the eternal as the focus on family, faith and traditions connect the past with the future, to prepare society for disruptions.

Yet, liberalism in the collective West is not especially tolerant of conservative values. While the liberal nation-state was previously a vehicle for success, liberalism has begun decoupling itself from the nation-state over the past years. Liberal Man is rapidly liberating himself from his own past through multiculturalism, radical secularism, a departure from recognising the family as the main institution of a stable society, and an aversion to traditional values.

In contrast, cooperation in a multipolar Eurasia does not entail exporting a political system or conformity around “values”. The various civilisations in the Eurasian house pursue economic and cultural connectivity, whilst preserving their respective cultural distinctiveness. As a conservative country, it paradoxically becomes easier for Hungary to preserve its European distinctiveness in the multipolar Eurasian format.

Hopefully, Hungary will show the way for the rest of Europe in terms of transitioning from the confrontational unipolar order to a cooperative multipolar format – as the western peninsula of Greater Eurasia.




Empires come and go .. only Persian empire lasted 1000 yrs uninterrupted
.
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Mortgage bonds 10/20/2022

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

FfixNS4WIAg6pAl.png
FfixNS4WIAg6pAl.png (316.73 KiB) Viewed 2259 times
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Heracleum Persicum wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 10:03 am
Parodite wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:12 am US doomed, Russia doomed, China doomed, EU doomed, Africa and South+Middle America remain doomed. This will cause Iran and Israel become best friends, lo and behold! Old Persian and Jewish wisdom... new Empire will rise!

https://www.rt.com/news/563244-hungary-turns-to-east/


As now everything Russian is free in west , here the RT article for those who can not access it due to EU ban for RT (using VPN will fix this .. West promoting VPN use in Mullah land :lol: )



By Glenn Diesen, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and an editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal.

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Uzbekistan has prompted a geo-economic earthquake, as Eurasian giants such as China, India, Russia, Pakistan and Iran are integrating their economies to new levels.

Meanwhile, Turkey wants to be the first NATO country to join the group.

The aftershocks of the meeting are also being felt in Europe. More specifically, as I sit here at the Budapest Economic Forum, organised by the Central Bank of Hungary, I can feel the Samarkand Spirit of the SCO, as a Eurasian future is being charted.

The collapse of the international economic system

Liberal international economic systems tend to form when there is a concentration of economic power under a strong leader. With an immense concentration of fiscal heft, the collective West was able to act as a “benign hegemon” that could deliver public goods and create trust in a stable international economic order. This was the European Union that Hungary integrated into in the 1990s when the US was the sole superpower and the EU was considered a locomotive for economic and social prosperity across the continent.

However, three decades later the world is a very different place. The EU’s relative share of the global economy continues its steady decline as industrial competitiveness deteriorates, debt reaches unsustainable heights, and the future of the euro looks grim. In the US, the economic picture and issues with political stability also give cause for concern.

Brussels is also incapable of facilitating wider cooperation. The bloc was never able to accommodate Russia, the largest state on the continent, causing a revival of Cold War dynamics. The British demand for preserving the political sovereignty of national parliaments could not be accommodated, and Britain thus left the EU. It now appears there is also no room in the European tent for the conservative aspirations of Hungary and Poland. As the bloc threatens to suspend billions in funds to Hungary, it becomes more difficult to preserve political independence.

When an economic hegemon is in relative decline, the international economic system begins to fragment. To defend their position in the international system, the US and EU use economic coercion against both allies and adversaries. The West disrupts the supply chains of rival powers such as China and Russia to prevent their rise, while friends and allies such as India, Turkey and Hungary are also punished for failing to display geoeconomic loyalty. Subsequently, the unipolar era is over. The West is no longer capable of acting as a benign hegemon by providing public goods or administrating an international economic system based on trust.

Eurasia rising

The international economic system is fragmenting as economic dependencies formed over the past decades are weaponised. A multitude of problems ranging from disruptive technologies, war and environmental degradation threaten the world, yet the necessary cooperation is faltering. It is evident that the unipolar order is already over, and a multipolar order is emerging in its place to revive economic connectivity and restore stability.

This is facilitated by the Greater Eurasian partnership, which entails the development of a new multipolar geoeconomic ecosystem. The countries on the Eurasian super-continent are developing connectivity between their technological hubs and financial hubs, while connecting physically with huge infrastructure projects to form new transportation corridors.

Budapest’s objective is to become a key node in the new Eurasian geoeconomic ecosystem and to revive economic connectivity in a multipolar format. Hungary was the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to sign a currency swap agreement with China, and the first in Europe to join China’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road infrastructure initiative. Not only is Budapest connecting itself closer to the growth engine of Asia, but it is also setting itself up as a bridge between the East and West.

Hungary is also resisting further sanctions on Russia to maintain access to energy resources. Simply put, Eurasia is reviving globalisation.

A conservative path
Hungary’s Eurasian path is also consistent with its conservative aspirations. After decades of communism and the development of Marxist Man, Hungary naturally seeks to restore the role of national culture, the Church and traditional values in its national consciousness.

As new technologies and rampant market forces cause disruptions, it is necessary to balance change with continuity. Conservatism therefore anchors stability in the eternal as the focus on family, faith and traditions connect the past with the future, to prepare society for disruptions.

Yet, liberalism in the collective West is not especially tolerant of conservative values. While the liberal nation-state was previously a vehicle for success, liberalism has begun decoupling itself from the nation-state over the past years. Liberal Man is rapidly liberating himself from his own past through multiculturalism, radical secularism, a departure from recognising the family as the main institution of a stable society, and an aversion to traditional values.

In contrast, cooperation in a multipolar Eurasia does not entail exporting a political system or conformity around “values”. The various civilisations in the Eurasian house pursue economic and cultural connectivity, whilst preserving their respective cultural distinctiveness. As a conservative country, it paradoxically becomes easier for Hungary to preserve its European distinctiveness in the multipolar Eurasian format.

Hopefully, Hungary will show the way for the rest of Europe in terms of transitioning from the confrontational unipolar order to a cooperative multipolar format – as the western peninsula of Greater Eurasia.


Empires come and go .. only Persian empire lasted 1000 yrs uninterrupted
.
It takes a post-graduate education and a life spent in academic isolation to be able to spout such delusions.

Whom are is he trying to kid?

The reality is that no one wants to be Russian, PR Chinese, Pakistani, or Iranian.

All of these economies are swirling round the toilet bowl.

These are places that people, who have the ways and means, flee from, pardon me, emigrate from, not emigrate to.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote: Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:29 am FfixNS4WIAg6pAl.png
Well, the yields on US Treasury bonds have been taking off like scalded dogs.

The US 10 year note yield recently blasted through the 4% level.

US-10-Year-Treasury-Note.jpg
US-10-Year-Treasury-Note.jpg (47.03 KiB) Viewed 2253 times
[Source: WSJ]

US homeowners with borderline variable rate mortgages are in for a world of pain.

This is also causing a major problem for the BoJ continuing ZIRP as the JPY is now trading at about 150 Yen to the rocketing US dollar ~ a 30 year low.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Wired | Opendoor’s iBuyer Model Is a Canary in the Economic Coal Mine [paywalled?]
The company is losing huge sums of money on cookie-cutter homes—suggesting a fundamental weakness in the US housing market.
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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Nonc Hilaire »

Tom thinks the Fed is going to save itself at the expense of Mr. Global.

https://tomluongo.me/2022/10/18/when-th ... e-winning/
“Christ has no body now but yours. Yours are the eyes through which he looks with compassion on this world. Yours are the feet with which he walks among His people to do good. Yours are the hands through which he blesses His creation.”

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Re: Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

Post by Typhoon »

Nonc Hilaire wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:21 pm Tom thinks the Fed is going to save itself at the expense of Mr. Global.

https://tomluongo.me/2022/10/18/when-th ... e-winning/
“Why look for conspiracy when stupidity can explain so much”

― Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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