Carbizene wrote:Simple Minded wrote:
I thought there might be something to it at first, but as more and more politicians bought into it, and the herd got bigger and bigger, my skepticism increased. When McCain bought in, my confidence level that the herd was wrong went from 90% to 110% +/-.005%.
So I'm guessing by this logic Kennedy's politicisation of Lunar exploration with his landmark speech and the 'herd' supporting it, you don't accept the Moon exists.
I would never call it logic, simply observation of how, when people are exposed to subject matter that is out side their area of expertise, and impossible for them to personally correctly verify a result, they get emotionally invested in an outcome simply due to the existence of peer pressure/common headlines/opinions of experts/desire to be accepted by the "cool kids."
Function of the amygdala, not the cerebral cortex.
Since politicians are the ulitmate herd animals/celebrity wanna bes/parade chasers, whenever they reach consensus and fully invest in an idea/outcome, it is almost always very near the end of the trend they advocate, and the reversal catches the herd (and their "leaders"
) by surprise.
I believe it is called Contrarian Theory, and IIRC has about about a 70-80% probability rate of correctly predicting trend reversals in the next 18 months. Less to do with logic, more to do with "gut."
If you have ever been in a meeting, and watched a bunch of highly educated "scientists/experts" collectively talk thru a subject, until they arrive at consensus that 2+2=5, you have witnessed the phenomena. Tis a site to behold when a group will believe something that none would ever buy into on their own. The desire to "belong" is a very powerful master.