Doc wrote:You make a very interesting point But let me put more of a point on it. The first largest oil exporting country is Saudi Arabia with 7.6 billion barrels . The second largest oil exporting country is Russia with 5 billion barrels Third is Iran 2.5 billion barrels. (all per year) For Putin destroying Saudi Arabia and its oil exports is a win - win situation. For the rest of the world it would be a disaster. But for Russia it would level the playing field.
True, however I can't imagine Russia "destroying" Saudi Arabia. The protector of SA is a country with the most powerful military on Earth, this should be reminded.
However, if Putin chooses to send a strong message to Saudi rulers, he can do it with far more surgical means than by attacking a whole country.
As an example, he could order the killing of a series of low-rank or middle-rank members of the royal family. The House of Saud includes thousands of members (result of polygamy over several generations). Those people often travel, study or have fun outside of the Kingdom, and then they are fairly vulnerable. Attacking some of those people would of course means attacking innocents, but I'm not sure this would stop Russian government (...nor the US nor any European government, to be honest). And making clear the lives of House of Saud members are on the line every time a Caucasus Jihadist attacks Russian civilians would I'm sure enable Putin to get the
full attention of the Saudi government, making it a bit more interested in restricting Saudi gifts to Jihadists and telling Bandar to lower the temperature a notch or two (or ten)
I'm not saying this precisely is what will happen. What I'm pretty sure of is that there will be a reaction from Russia to the recent Volgograd attacks, and I suspect Saudi Arabian rulers won't like it.
As to what it will be, I'm not going to pretend a mere French engineer has as much imagination as a Russian master spy...