Gloom, Doom, or Boom? Finance and Economics

[Typhoon]

im waiting for the first western leader to promise negative interest rates.

The only banking situation in which depositors consistently lose interest is sperm banking.

i dont trust the institutions so store mine in the mattress.

*straight face*

lol. Very good.

[Simple Minded]

Thanks Nonc.

All too true of Westerners. Those who look the poorest sometimes have the highest net worth.

"tis the eyes of others that ruin us......."

[Simple Minded]

im waiting for the first western leader to promise negative interest rates.

The only banking situation in which depositors consistently lose interest is sperm banking.

i dont trust the institutions so store mine in the mattress.

*straight face*

A bird (or whatever) in your hand is worth two in the bush......

[Parodite]

The real Doom is that more and more people talk about the financial crisis as if it is something like the climate, discussing MMGW. "The causes are too complex", "It's greed in general", "Crises always occur at one point because we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems", "there are no precedents so the future remains uncertain".... etc.

And enough reasoned, educated and experienced people claim opposite things to make the general public surrender to this crisis as unrecovereable, too complex, inevitable. It was not even worth a serious discussion (was it) in the Obamney-Rombama debates.

Maybe I'm just refusing to see the light, but can't help to see this financial crisis as the result of some very simple and easy to understand design errors with a pretty good analogy being electrical circuits.

Look at this video, the approach can be applied 1:1 on the financial industry to fix things.

Uf3peItxyGE

The key term here is selective coordination.

What is selective coordination?
The term selective coordination refers to the selection and setting of protective devices in an electric power system in such a manner as to cause the smallest possible portion of the system to be de-energized due to an abnormal condition. This ensures any over-current event is first tripped by the smallest breaker in the system before allowing a larger main breaker to intercept the fault. This limits the service interruption to only the circuit experiencing the problem and does not shut down a larger portion of the facility.

[noddy]

im in the Crises always occur at one point because we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems camp and would remind you that mechanical components are far more predictable and testable for "correct behaviour" and much much easier to solder into correct patterns, them damn humans are always creating new circuits and bypassing existing patterns

when mr p and endo and tinker and simple minded agree on what correct behaviour is, ill take this view seriously.

i do thinks its like mmgw, i tend to consider the aggregate effect of millions (billions?) of humans in regards our economic conditions is more like weather and you should have buffers for the times the rain aint falling... so yes, the answer is simple, it was completely stupid for everyone to think this was a controlled and reliable system and you should leverage up to your eyeballs because your wages are always going up in endless growth.

doesnt the solution of everyone ramping up on credit because savings isnt stimulating the economy enough sound awfully short-term to you ?

why should i take such a risk against the future .. seems to me most people are ignoring the politicians rain dance, ermm confidence dance at the moment because they think exactly like that.

it teases you with the sense there is a predictable pattern, at times those patterns last for ages.. yet they always do change, just like weather which is also seasonably predictable, except when it isnt.

the societies which didnt save some water for the drought are going to suffer, crying at the ones that did and blaming them is futile.

prosperity will come back, our inability to create perfect stable patterns is nothing against our ability to create new patterns out of chaos, we are excellent at that.

[noddy]

the australian reserve bank on why it didnt see the GFC or the linkages from bodgy american housing loans to the rest of us and "the lessons" that have been learnt.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/10 ... confesses/

it does appear to be long winded way of saying dont put all your eggs in one basket and be suspicious of real estate - banks needed to change their funding mix and has a delightful bit of "it wont happen here" about our own huge housing bubble .. unf...

[Parodite]

im in the Crises always occur at one point because we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems camp and would remind you that mechanical components are far more predictable and testable for "correct behaviour" and much much easier to solder into correct patterns, them damn humans are always creating new circuits and bypassing existing patterns

Quite true, but I still like to contrast the "it is out of our hands" perception with the other extreme. Maybe reality oscillates somewhere in between.

A man sits in his living room pondering life. How ultimately things are unpredictable, that every system has an expiration date. In the mean time he discovers his roof is in a bad condition, water starts dripping off his ceiling while a bad rain storm howls around his little house. In his mind this confirms his discovery that "we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems". He wonders if it makes any sense to even start repairing his roof. Maybe better to accept the inevitable already. Wouldn't warm socks, an extra pullover and a rain coat also not be much cheaper? To be flexible in your solutions is probably a better surviving strategy, as opposed to demanding rigid and fool proof solutions to each and every crisis, small or big. That is setting yourself up for disappointment and failure. Happy with his thoughts and discovering that his leaking roof does not bother him that much gives him new energy and inspiration. With an ironic smile he decides to take a look at his damn roof the next day and fix that darn lil' thing anyway.

Next episode: outage of electricity. Discovers that circuitry has been rewired, 5 fuses have been removed with only the main fuse switch left to secure the system. Discovers that the circuitry has been rewired not by the usual professional electro-technician, but by a business that actually belongs to the energy supplier who only wants you to use more energy and at higher risks. At higher risks because the energy supplier is in a joint venture with an insurance company who is selling you products to protect you from disasters of the type you are experiencing when you had a systemic electricity outage and your house hardly escaped going up in flames. But also for that they have security packages. And if all is lost... they will come and invite you into the holy of holiest of their shrewd business. Where they learn you how to bet against peoples success or demise, it doesn't matter... You always win because only others loose.

[noddy]

I still like to contrast the "it is out of our hands" perception with the other extreme. Maybe reality oscillates somewhere in between.

so the last 20-30 years (depending on location) of stable boom aint enough ?

as i understand it, the pattern was more ~10 year recessions previous to this and some think that the use of credit to avoid that is why we are in such a long and drawn out downturn at the moment ... we wouldnt take our restructuring medicine and now we have the peak credit illness.

[Simple Minded]

im in the Crises always occur at one point because we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems camp and would remind you that mechanical components are far more predictable and testable for "correct behaviour" and much much easier to solder into correct patterns, them damn humans are always creating new circuits and bypassing existing patterns

when mr p and endo and tinker and simple minded agree on what correct behaviour is, ill take this view seriously.

i do thinks its like mmgw, i tend to consider the aggregate effect of millions (billions?) of humans in regards our economic conditions is more like weather and you should have buffers for the times the rain aint falling... so yes, the answer is simple, it was completely stupid for everyone to think this was a controlled and reliable system and you should leverage up to your eyeballs because your wages are always going up in endless growth.

doesnt the solution of everyone ramping up on credit because savings isnt stimulating the economy enough sound awfully short-term to you ?

why should i take such a risk against the future .. seems to me most people are ignoring the politicians rain dance, ermm confidence dance at the moment because they think exactly like that.

it teases you with the sense there is a predictable pattern, at times those patterns last for ages.. yet they always do change, just like weather which is also seasonably predictable, except when it isnt.

the societies which didnt save some water for the drought are going to suffer, crying at the ones that did and blaming them is futile.

prosperity will come back, our inability to create perfect stable patterns is nothing against our ability to create new patterns out of chaos, we are excellent at that.

Good points. My take has never been that life will be stable if everyone acts correctly, but that acting stupidly reduces one's odds of dealing effectively with life's inevitable changes and vissitudes.

How to define "not acting stupidly?" Have some margin, don't live on the edge, don't eat your seedcorn, don't gamble with the rent money, and don't expect the current/recent trend of normal to continue indefinitely, etc.

[Simple Minded]

im in the Crises always occur at one point because we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems camp and would remind you that mechanical components are far more predictable and testable for "correct behaviour" and much much easier to solder into correct patterns, them damn humans are always creating new circuits and bypassing existing patterns

Quite true, but I still like to contrast the "it is out of our hands" perception with the other extreme. Maybe reality oscillates somewhere in between.

A man sits in his living room pondering life. How ultimately things are unpredictable, that every system has an expiration date. In the mean time he discovers his roof is in a bad condition, water starts dripping off his ceiling while a bad rain storm howls around his little house. In his mind this confirms his discovery that "we are part of ultimately unstable chaotic systems". He wonders if it makes any sense to even start repairing his roof. Maybe better to accept the inevitable already. Wouldn't warm socks, an extra pullover and a rain coat also not be much cheaper? To be flexible in your solutions is probably a better surviving strategy, as opposed to demanding rigid and fool proof solutions to each and every crisis, small or big. That is setting yourself up for disappointment and failure. Happy with his thoughts and discovering that his leaking roof does not bother him that much gives him new energy and inspiration. With an ironic smile he decides to take a look at his damn roof the next day and fix that darn lil' thing anyway.

I think those who grow up in agricultural settings learn early that life is unpredictable, their are no guarantees, and that one best chances for success is deal with it to the best of your abilities while not living with no margin.

I think the idustrial age (air conditioning, evironmental controls, 9-5 jobs, etc.) has caused many to falsely underestimate the variablity of life, and unrealisticly expect stability.

That and some just seem to have a personal bending towards self-destructiveness or self-preservation.

[Parodite]

I still like to contrast the "it is out of our hands" perception with the other extreme. Maybe reality oscillates somewhere in between.

so the last 20-30 years (depending on location) of stable boom aint enough ?

as i understand it, the pattern was more ~10 year recessions previous to this and some think that the use of credit to avoid that is why we are in such a long and drawn out downturn at the moment ... we wouldnt take our restructuring medicine and now we have the peak credit illness.

No idea... The annoying thing is that during complex instability small random causes can generate very different outcomes, and different new patterns. It becomes rather meaningless to predict in an anything-is-possible situation. Which then leaves you with the old fashioned common sense behavior. Repair the roof when it leaks.. save some for bad times, beware that nothing is forever.. which is what you and SM also say, right?

[Jnalum Persicum]

.

“They say, ‘Well, all we need is a little compromise.’ Well nobody expects that because they do not admit the truth, and the truth is that we are broke.”


Monster, Ron Paul says you already over the cliff



.

[Typhoon]

teaserbreit.jpg

So just exactly how big is this US Fiscal Cliff that all the pundits are going on about?

[Jnalum Persicum]

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teaserbreit.jpg

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So just exactly how big is this US Fiscal Cliff that all the pundits are going on about ?

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is widely credited with coining "fiscal cliff," the ominous term that refers to $7 trillion in spending cuts and tax increases set to be triggered in January.



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[Mr. Perfect]

It's 7 trillion automatic vs 1 trillion negotiated in the next 50 some odd days, 1 trillion being a 10% cut to the deficit, not the budget, which can be erased by next years congress or an economic slowdown. In other words essentially nothing.

The GOP plan was this first, Ryan plan second, and we'd be on the path to stability. Now the American people, a majority, have chosen a path to destruction. It will destroy some of them anyway.

[Jnalum Persicum]

.

It's 7 trillion automatic vs 1 trillion negotiated in the next 50 some odd days, 1 trillion being a 10% cut to the deficit, not the budget, which can be erased by next years congress or an economic slowdown. In other words essentially nothing.

The GOP plan was this first, Ryan plan second, and we'd be on the path to stability. Now the American people, a majority, have chosen a path to destruction. It will destroy some of them anyway.

.

Mr. Perfect

True

" In other words essentially nothing "


let's be frank, MP

Romney would have done no difference

You living waaaaay beyond your means .. waaaaay beyond

cut "rate of deficit increase" just gimmick

you need "10 on Richter scale" stuff

you ready for ? ?

not really

American economy is "consumer economy"

meaning, the moment you stop consuming, you dead



you ready for that ? ?

hardly

so

Romney, Obama same

Ron Paul would have made a difference

but nobody listing to him .. everybody knows he right, but not ready for the pain

well

neither war nor collapse of dollar will fix things

you done


.

[Typhoon]

US future societal collapse, real or imagined, is now a new thread in the US section.

[Hoosiernorm]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

[Nonc Hilaire]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

Unfortunately, the only credible metric is the number of people crushed to death at Wal-Mart openings.

[noddy]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

Unfortunately, the only credible metric is the number of people crushed to death at Wal-Mart openings.

this needs to be scaled for inflation across different time periods, you cant fit as many modern fatties across the doorway as in previous leaner times.

[Hoosiernorm]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-1 ... -gone-wild

It all makes perfect sense. S&P 500 futures are 33 points off Friday's lows (Boehner's 'constructive chatter' and Fiscal Cliff is fixed), EURUSD is rallying decently (Greece is fixed), and commodities in general have gone vertical. Gold is back above $1730 but its Silver and Oil (tensions rising - despite cease-fire?) that is running the high-beta pump this morning. WTI is almost 4% higher than Friday's lows up near $89. The highly correlated nature of everything is perhaps merely sympomatic of a low volume week ahead and short-term oversold conditions - we suspect little is really resolved in any of these three 'event risks' and the same real-money anxious investors will use strength to reduce exposure further - since remember, if the S&P 500 is anywhere near its highs by year-end, there will be no fiscal cliff resolution.

[Typhoon]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

Unfortunately, the only credible metric is the number of people crushed to death at Wal-Mart openings.

this needs to be scaled for inflation across different time periods, you cant fit as many modern fatties across the doorway as in previous leaner times.

Very good.

For a number of years now, I've been in the US during Black Friday and will be again this year. The amount of local news coverage devoted to this shopping event is remarkable.

Not just traffic reports, which are understandable, but reporters broadcasting live from various malls.

[Simple Minded]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

Unfortunately, the only credible metric is the number of people crushed to death at Wal-Mart openings.

this needs to be scaled for inflation across different time periods, you cant fit as many modern fatties across the doorway as in previous leaner times.

Good points! The bigger the vehicle, the less safety the air bag provides......

and the bigger the air bag, the less likely one is to get hurt...... not to mention the impact speeds are a lot slower now

I seem to recall something about mometum equaling mass times velocity squared...

Hard science is often difficult in these situations...

[noddy]

I'm curious how the Black Friday sales are going to be? Will folks shop as much this year?

Unfortunately, the only credible metric is the number of people crushed to death at Wal-Mart openings.

this needs to be scaled for inflation across different time periods, you cant fit as many modern fatties across the doorway as in previous leaner times.

Good points! The bigger the vehicle, the less safety the air bag provides......

and the bigger the air bag, the less likely one is to get hurt...... not to mention the impact speeds are a lot slower now

I seem to recall something about mometum equaling mass times velocity squared...

Hard science is often difficult in these situations...

aah yes, complicated further by the changing fashions in shoes - a fatty in high heels is a much more deadly creature than a scrawny in flip flops which mitigates the padding factors.

we need funding for the modeling, im sure we can come up with a metric for appropriate body mass and footware to be used as the legal framework behind banning certain people from the queues and making the stampedes safer.

[Simple Minded]

aah yes, complicated further by the changing fashions in shoes - a fatty in high heels is a much more deadly creature than a scrawny in flip flops which mitigates the padding factors.

we need funding for the modeling, im sure we can come up with a metric for appropriate body mass and footware to be used as the legal framework behind banning certain people from the queues and making the stampedes safer.

unfortunately, most overfed lab animals either go to sleep or just start fuckin their kinfolk.......

But how to factor in the distractions/unsafe practies of modern life?
- 300 lb women with sexy tatoos on their cankles........
- people who can't walk and chew gum at the same time trying to simultaneously text and find the sexy longerie at Bass Pro shop....
- large people driving scooters whose GVW rating is exceeded by 120 lbs and have no backup alarms.........
- the fact that many stores will open up at midnight and most of the people who will get there six hours early have never seen a pair of long underware in their lives.... and don't know how to make a survival fire with only matches, ciggarettes, and the advertising flyers from yesterday's newspaper...

beware of people driving handicap scooters that are custom fitted with cow catchers and have NASCAR numbers painted on the cargo baskets........ those are the pros...... they play for keeps.....