On the Nature of Things | Forum

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:18 pm coronavirus-data-explorer.png

Apollonius wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:02 pm

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:18 pm coronavirus-data-explorer.png

Colonel Sun, would you care to speculate as to why Japan's death rate is so low?

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:51 am

Apollonius wrote: ↑Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:02 pm

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:18 pm coronavirus-data-explorer.png

Colonel Sun, would you care to speculate as to why Japan's death rate is so low?

Speculation.
Early and strict border closure.
Early adoption of the ubiquitous wearing of masks.

Shibuya crossing, the busiest pedestrian crossing in Tokyo:
lkIJYc4UH60

Detection of COVID-19 hotspots, contact tracing, and quarantine of those potentially affected.
No tradition of personal contact in business and social settings: shaking hands, hugging, Euro-kissing, etc.

One would think that given the high percentage of elderly, Japan would have been more impacted.
However, comorbidities such as obesity and diabetes are much less prevalent. Perhaps this is a factor. Who knows?

Finally, COVID-19 is perceived as being a health issue, not a political/cultural issue.

Having said that, the number of cases has been steadily increasing.

Early and strict border closure.
Early adoption of the ubiquitous wearing of masks.

Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2external icon. Sun et al. Science (November 24, 2020).

Key findings:

Contact tracing in Hunan, China between January 16 and April 23, 2020 showed that 80% of secondary infections were traced back to 15% of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.
210 clusters were identified, representing 831 (71%) of cases.
Risk of transmission was associated with the type of contact, length of exposure, and timing of symptom onset (Figure).
Household contacts pose the highest risk of transmission before (aOR 2.20, 95% CI 1.39-3.49) and after (aOR 3.79, 95% CI 2.47-5.79) implementation of social distancing.
Healthcare contacts pose the lowest risk of transmission before (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03-0.68) and after (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.01-0.90) social distancing.
Models suggest that complete and timely isolation/quarantine are insufficient, without other measures, to achieve pandemic control.

Methods: Records were linked from 1,178 SARS-CoV-2 patients and 15,648 of their close contacts with detailed exposure diaries collected via contact tracing to reconstruct transmission chains and identify epidemiologic clusters before and after lockdown began on January 25, 2020. The per-contact risk of transmission, with contact type, duration, symptoms, demographic factors, and different outbreak periods as covariates were modeled. The impact of population-level physical distancing, contact tracing, and timeliness of isolation/quarantine was also assessed. Limitations: Cluster investigation did not include genetic sequencing; estimates may not be generalizable.

Implications: Additional mitigation efforts may be advised within households while one or more members are in quarantine or isolation. Achieving SARS-CoV-2 pandemic control will require the synergistic efforts of case isolation, contact quarantine, and other population-level interventions.

Figure:

Simple Minded wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:29 pm doc,

Impressive amount of data, but using the CDC as a source? and the CDC using information from China as a source?

I remember when the "stay at home" lockdowns first started I told my wife "Theses mayors and governors who are telling people to stay at home have no idea whatsoever what the air quality is like in Fred's apartment building compared to the air quality in Fred's work place. Not much basis for making a sound decision."

Simple Minded wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:22 pm Every now and then, you encounter someone who looks like a walking potential COVID-19 fatality....

https://www.ibtimes.sg/cosmopolitan-acc ... d-19-54650

Simple Minded wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:22 pm Every now and then, you encounter someone who looks like a walking potential COVID-19 fatality....

https://www.ibtimes.sg/cosmopolitan-acc ... d-19-54650

Simple Minded wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:00 pm Obesity rates between the US and Canada are very similar. COVID death rate in US is 2.5 times higher than Canada?

I wonder if Canada is offering financial incentives to claim co-morbidity deaths as COVID deaths.

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:50 pm

Simple Minded wrote: ↑Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:00 pm Obesity rates between the US and Canada are very similar. COVID death rate in US is 2.5 times higher than Canada?

I wonder if Canada is offering financial incentives to claim co-morbidity deaths as COVID deaths.

Or perhaps the Canucks are wearing masks and avoid close social interactions more.

NYC, smallpox, 1947: Come get your shot.

NYC, COVID-19, 2021: Fill out this convoluted online form, up to 51 questions, upload your insurance card, alphabetize your utensil drawer, and sing the entirety of "Kashmir" into your phone, in Hungarian.

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm

NYC, smallpox, 1947: Come get your shot.

NYC, COVID-19, 2021: Fill out this convoluted online form, up to 51 questions, upload your insurance card, alphabetize your utensil drawer, and sing the entirety of "Kashmir" into your phone, in Hungarian.

Colonel Sun wrote: ↑Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm

NYC, smallpox, 1947: Come get your shot.

NYC, COVID-19, 2021: Fill out this convoluted online form, up to 51 questions, upload your insurance card, alphabetize your utensil drawer, and sing the entirety of "Kashmir" into your phone, in Hungarian.

Nonc Hilaire wrote: ↑Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:42 pm Trump is gone, and within a week:

. . .

The Lancet retracts and reverses study on hydrochloroquine, saying it is a safe, inexpensive and effective cure for COVID.

"Most of them will have lung disease caused by COVID-19," he told MedPage Today, "but in a significant proportion of people who have positive COVID-19 testing in life, they will die of another pathology. I had a person with type 2 diabetes who was unable to get his insulin and he basically died from diabetes ketoacidosis. Even though he had tested positive for COVID-19, his death was deemed to be a diabetic death, not a COVID-19 death."

"Autopsy has played an important role in the COVID-19 pandemic almost from the very start of the pandemic," Williamson said. "Autopsy informs our understanding of disease, ensures that the therapies that we are employing medically and surgically are effective in targeting and dealing with the diseases. Autopsies provide important information for families so they can understand what happened to their loved ones and proceed through the grieving process and hopefully come to closure. Autopsy also plays a vital role in quality assurance of medical care, and autopsy plays a very important role in assuring accurate public health data in terms of death certification."