monster_gardener wrote:Using your standards for why Iran should have a nuke, why shouldn't the Basque Separatists also acquire nukes for their struggle against Spanish domination?
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The Basques consider themselves a nation...... more ancient than Spain or Portugal..........
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Tell me whether or not your argument for Iranian nukes is valid for Basque nukes and if not, why?
Short list of differences between Basque separatists and Iran:
- No internationally recognized Basque State exists presently. Iran presently exists as an internationally recognized State.
- No Basque State has existed for many centuries. By contrast, Iran has existed continuously for the last three millenia.
- No majority of Basques want independence from Spain. They are satisfied with present arrangement of extended autonomy in the framework of the Spanish State. By contrast, Iranians want to continue existing as an independent nation.
BTW, I am against both the Iranians and the Basques getting nukes.......
My argument is that every time another nation gets nukes the number of relationships which may lead to nuclear war increases by at least a factor....
Two unescapable facts are standing:
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Any nation has the sovereign right to develop weaponry for its defense, as it sees fit by sovereign decision. That right can only be limited through Treaty (NPT), provided a nation has signed to be part of that Treaty. The NPT in any case provides for right to unilateral denounciation of participation.
- If
every nation on Earth had nuclear weapons, given the existence of revolutions & failed States, given different standards of security, nuclear wars would be bound to happen, each one of them costing at least few millions lives.
The present internationally accepted solution is a compromise: most nations forfeit their right to develop nuclear weapons, in exchange for guarantees of restraint by nuclear-armed nations. It cannot be more than an
imperfect compromise (some would say an awkward one), that is bound to be tested from time to time:
- when nations not signatories to the NPT develop nuclear deterrents: Israel, India, Pakistan, and perform public nuclear tests (the two latter)
- when nations signatories to the NPT denounce their participation and perform public nuclear tests: North Korea, potentially Iran in the near future
Such tests need not lead to any catastrophe: development of Israeli, Indian, Pakistan and even North Korean deterrents did not result in any disaster.
Such tests however are
delicate times, because they put stress in a compromise that is part of the basis of civilized life between nations on this planet, and because they create fears.
When nuclear nations Nos. 6 through 9 created their deterrents, they demonstrated at least a measure, and sometimes much more than a measure, of restraint. None of them called for partial ethnic cleansing of any nation. None of them expressed will at hegemony over two thirds of the planet's oil reserves.
Even North Korean propaganda insisted only on the need for South Koreans to get rid of Americans, which is not the same thing as calling for ethnic cleansing or aiming at world energy hegemony!
By contrast, potential nuclear nation No. 10 (Iran):
1.----- has as Supreme Leader a man (Ali Khamenei) who is on record calling for a
partial ethnic cleansing (that those Israeli Jews whose ancestors were Europeans rather than living in the Middle-East would be forced out of their country) and calling an internationally recognized State a "cancerous tumour" that should disappear. In 2008, that man was correcting Iranian President Ahmadinejad because of the latter's position that although Iran was enemy of the Zionist State, it was friend of the Israeli people. Khamenei rebuked the comparatively moderate Ahmadinejad and
set the record straight that Iran was not merely enemy of the Israeli regime, but of the Israeli people itself
The comments came amid a controversy in Iran over remarks attributed to an Iranian official close to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a vice president in charge of tourism, was quoted in a July interview as saying that Iranians were friends with the Israeli people, despite the conflict between the governments.
"Today, Iran is friends with the American and Israeli people," he said, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. "No nation in the world is our enemy."
Hard-liners close to the government pounced on Mashaei's remarks. But Thursday night Ahmadinejad appeared to back up Mashaei, voicing sympathy for the Israeli people, even as he predicted Israel's demise.
"The Iranian nation never recognized Israel and will never ever recognize it," he said at a news conference. "But we feel pity for those who have been deceived or smuggled into Israel to be oppressed citizens in Israel."
Ahmadinejad is scheduled to arrive in New York within days for the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly, which probably will take up the issue of Iran's nuclear program.
Khamenei left little doubt about Iran's position on relations with Israel, saying he was raising the issue "to spell an end to any debates" on it.
"It is incorrect, irrational, pointless and nonsense to say that we are friends of Israeli people," said Khamenei, who delivers prayer sermons only on special occasions.
2.----- has a regime whose founder (Ruhollah Khomeiny) called for the
overthrow of all Arab Gulf countries' regimes (a half-dozen internationally recognized States!), with intent to establish Iranian hegemony over them. That hegemony would (
coincidentally...) lead to Iran getting control direct or indirect over two-thirds of global oil reserves, with all the attendant commending influence on all economies on this planet.
It would be very easy for Iran to smoothe its accession to nuclear power status:
- Position like "We recognize the State of Israel, we refuse its illegitimate occupation of Arab lands and reserve the right to help militarily Palestinians struggling against that occupation. If Israel discontinued that occupation and signed a permanent territorial settlement with Palestinian representatives, we would have no further issue of contention with the Israeli people"
- Position like "We question on religious grounds the legitimacy of any monarchy and have particular concern for the individual rights of Shia Muslims. At the same time, we recognize of course the right of Gulf Arabic countries to live as Arabs independently from us"
If Iran had such "hardline but not bonkers" position, there would be no more qualms to its nuclear program than to India's or Pakistan's... that is, no more than a few protests "for the form", and certainly no military threat whatsoever.
But the position of the Iranian regime is very much different.
What the consequences will be, I don't know:
- Israeli-only military intervention against Iranian nuclear program is at the outer limit of feasibility
- American military intervention looks improbable
- Military intervention by another nation (both France and Russia would have the capability) looks even more improbable
- At the same time, Iran being deterred from building nuclear weapons by anything less than military intervention looks very improbable
- At the same time, America and Israel accepting Iranian nuclear armament looks difficult to imagine
This looks like a version of "Irresistible force meets unmoveable objects": nothing seems ready to give, and yet
something will have to give.
No idea what it will be.