Syria

[Ibrahim]

Can't believe how much press Assad's big speech got. Who cares what he has to say about the future of Syria? His death toll is no longer disputed and he will not stay in power no matter what.

[Alexis]

Can't believe how much press Assad's big speech got. Who cares what he has to say about the future of Syria? His death toll is no longer disputed and he will not stay in power no matter what.

What are your reasons for being sure that Assad will not stay in power?

I don't know the details of situation on the field, and I suspect it's very difficult to clarify that, given the amount of propaganda from both sides, so how can you feel sure about a given outcome?

Also this war is a civil war, with different religious / ethnic groups predominantly supporting one side or the other one, the current power has more weapons while anti-Assad seem to have more numbers, significant external support is available for both sides... The very fact that this war has already lasted long indicates that forces are approximately evenly balanced.

Incidentally, this is probably bad news. It would probably be better for Syrian civilians for one side to win rapidly -no matter which one- rather than the current protracted struggle which might well last for years.

[Ibrahim]

Can't believe how much press Assad's big speech got. Who cares what he has to say about the future of Syria? His death toll is no longer disputed and he will not stay in power no matter what.

What are your reasons for being sure that Assad will not stay in power?

Even the Russian envoy goofed and admitted it was a possibility, which is almost like the Pope admitting that, hey, maybe God doesn't exist after all.

I guess technically it could drag on as a civil war interminably until he died of natural causes, but he seems too young. All indications from reporters on the ground say that the rebels are either gaining ground or its a stalemate, which doesn't bode well for the regime. Hence their crude tactics of mass civilian murder using long-range weaponry.

Incidentally, this is probably bad news. It would probably be better for Syrian civilians for one side to win rapidly -no matter which one- rather than the current protracted struggle which might well last for years.

The only acceptable conclusion is for Assad to be removed from power and jailed or killed. I have nothing but the utmost contempt for anybody who proposes Assad remain in power after his conduct.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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Can't believe how much press Assad's big speech got. Who cares what he has to say about the future of Syria? His death toll is no longer disputed and he will not stay in power no matter what.

.

Ibrahim reporting from Turkish embassy, Ottawa

come on, Affandi

Assad said, live on TV : you secular Syrians (and non secular Syrians), Syria belongs to you, if you want to have those animal Wahhabi and Salafi paid by Qatari monkey and Saudi lavender Kings and Amirs and CIA and Mossad and Cameron and French rule you, be my guest, if not, it is your country, wipe out all the terrorists .. Assad made clear, this not about Assad, this about Syrian future .. anybody opposing Wahhabi and Ottoman rule should fight with nail and tooth .. and they will

Ibrahim, this a civil war between "Wahhabi + Ottoman Tyranny" and secular western minded freedom loving and civil society citizenry .. even if Assad no more, this will not stop, already a civil war + Russia and Iran (and Iraq) backing Assad


.

[Alexis]

I guess technically it could drag on as a civil war interminably until he died of natural causes, but he seems too young. All indications from reporters on the ground say that the rebels are either gaining ground or its a stalemate, which doesn't bode well for the regime. Hence their crude tactics of mass civilian murder using long-range weaponry.

Reports of lost ground don't bode well for the regime, indeed.
However the progression of wars is not necessarily linear. If the regime was in a desperate position on the ground, I would agree to say "Assad will leave power", but I don't know of convincing reports that the regime position would be militarily hopeless.

The only acceptable conclusion is for Assad to be removed from power and jailed or killed. I have nothing but the utmost contempt for anybody who proposes Assad remain in power after his conduct.

I don't know. It would be better for Syrians to embrace each other regardless of religious persuasion and to build an equalitarian and peaceful democracy, yes of course. Now, would that be the outcome if the rebels win?

Iraq got rid of a murderous despot a decade ago. But the result was interreligious civil wars, expulsion and "cleansings", anarchy added to foreign occupation. Sufferings of the Iraqi population were much worse than under Hussein, worse even than as a result of the murderous UN embargo of the 1990s.

If a rebel victory results in such a future for Syria, minus foreign occupation but with all the violence a majority can exert against minorities...

The bottom line is that no foreigner knows for sure what is best for Syrians.

Those foreigners who support one side or the other, from US to Russia including Saudia, Iran, France etc. do so for the sake of their perceived interests only. Not that it would be breaking news...

[Hans Bulvai]

I have yet to read a report that suggests that the rebels are gaining ground.
It is mostly they hold it then retreat when the bombs come raining in.
Actually, the latest I read today was that the support in the form of money and weapons is drying up.
In two weeks there is supposed to be a conference in Geneva sponsored by Germany, Switzerland and Sweden with opposition elements that support dialogue with the regime.
Also interesting is a story that I missed about Saudia's top cleric forbidding jihad or calls of jihad in Syria.

Syria is headed for a de facto partition. The Kurds in the north don't even fly the Syrian flag anymore. It is all Kurdistan to them.
Hell, Even Jordan and Qatar went through a political divorce over Syria after rubbing elbows when Qaddafi fell when both sent forces to aid in his downfall.

Anybody see or hear about the video of the 11 year old that used a knife to chop off the head of a Syrian (Alawi) officer to the cheers of fighters around him? 11 years old. Does anybody really need to ask what direction Syria is going to head in even if Asad falls and the rebels 'win'?

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 33199.html

The difference in perceptions inside and outside Damascus is explained partly by the way the international and regional media describes the war. There are few foreign journalists in the Syrian capital because it is difficult to get visas. By way of contrast, the rebels have a highly sophisticated media operation – often also foreign-based – proffering immediate details of every incident, often backed up by compelling, if selective, YouTube footage.

Understandably, the rebel version of events is heavily biased towards their own side and demonises the Syrian government. More surprising is the willingness of the international media, based often in Beirut but also in London and New York, to regurgitate with so little scepticism what is essentially good-quality propaganda. It is as if, prior to the US presidential election in November, foreign journalists had been unable to obtain visas to enter the US and had instead decided to rely on Republican Party militants for their information on the campaign – moreover, Republican activists based in Mexico and Canada.

It is true that there is the rumble of artillery in Damascus, but the city is not besieged. The roads north to Homs and south to Deraa are open, as is the road to Beirut. When the rebels do capture a district, government artillery pounds it, killing some and forcing others to flee. For those living in undamaged areas of the capital, there is an ever-growing fear of what the future holds, combined with increasing difficulties in day-to-day living because of cuts in electricity and a shortage of bread and cooking gas.

The rebels are making some progress on the ground but, overall, Syrians face a political and military stalemate. The rebels' assaults on Aleppo and Damascus have faltered, but the government forces do not have the strength to push them out of enclaves they have taken over. In the north, in particular, the rebels are making ground in the countryside around Hama, Idlib and Aleppo, but their advance is still slow.

[Hans Bulvai]

Read this from 2007, Seymour Hersch

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines07/0225-03.htm

Fourth, the Saudi government, with Washington’s approval, would provide funds and logistical aid to weaken the government of President Bashir Assad, of Syria. The Israelis believe that putting such pressure on the Assad government will make it more conciliatory and open to negotiations. Syria is a major conduit of arms to Hezbollah. The Saudi government is also at odds with the Syrians over the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister, in Beirut in 2005, for which it believes the Assad government was responsible. Hariri, a billionaire Sunni, was closely associated with the Saudi regime and with Prince Bandar. (A U.N. inquiry strongly suggested that the Syrians were involved, but offered no direct evidence; there are plans for another investigation, by an international tribunal.)

Patrick Clawson, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, depicted the Saudis’ coöperation with the White House as a significant breakthrough. “The Saudis understand that if they want the Administration to make a more generous political offer to the Palestinians they have to persuade the Arab states to make a more generous offer to the Israelis,” Clawson told me. The new diplomatic approach, he added, “shows a real degree of effort and sophistication as well as a deftness of touch not always associated with this Administration. Who’s running the greater risk—we or the Saudis? At a time when America’s standing in the Middle East is extremely low, the Saudis are actually embracing us. We should count our blessings.”

The Pentagon consultant had a different view. He said that the Administration had turned to Bandar as a “fallback,” because it had realized that the failing war in Iraq could leave the Middle East “up for grabs.”

[Hans Bulvai]

Read the comments Azari.
This kind of hostility is now rampant. I don't expect the Arabs to back Iran anytime soon.

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/6767 ... soner-swap

Forty-eight Iranians held hostage by Syrian rebels for five months arrived in a Damascus hotel on Wednesday after being freed in a prisoner swap for more than 2,000 regime prisoners.

The Iranians, described by Tehran as "pilgrims" by Tehran and by the rebels as captured Revolutionary Guards members supporting Syrian forces, looked visibly exhausted, with some weeping, an Agence France Presse correspondent reported.

They were embraced by waiting Iranian diplomats and given white lilies.

The prisoner exchange on Wednesday was the biggest to occur in Syria's 21-month old conflict.

Several sources, including a rebel spokesman and Iranian officials, said it was arranged through mediation by Turkey and Qatar.

The Iranian foreign ministry issued a statement praising the efforts "by our friend and brother Syria and the assistance of Qatar and Turkey in freeing the pilgrims."

A Turkish aid group, the Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH), said it spearheaded the swap of the Iranians for 2,139 detainees who had been prisoner of President Bashar Assad's regime, most of whom were Syrians but also a few foreigners including Turks

From the comments

If the Iranians were truly pilgrims then the regime would not have had a prisoner swap...let's get real...

Reply
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realist8 hours ago03
What a bad sad joke....where on earth does a country free its own citizens in exchange for freedom of anohter country's citizens??.?. And then this moron giraffe bashar comes out to lecture people on soveirgnty and nationalism, he is a mere iranian puppet as proved today with 2000 piece of evidence

[Ibrahim]

I guess technically it could drag on as a civil war interminably until he died of natural causes, but he seems too young. All indications from reporters on the ground say that the rebels are either gaining ground or its a stalemate, which doesn't bode well for the regime. Hence their crude tactics of mass civilian murder using long-range weaponry.

Reports of lost ground don't bode well for the regime, indeed.
However the progression of wars is not necessarily linear.

I agree. In Libya it seemed like the Gaddafi regime was winning the war, then two weeks later Gaddafi was dead.

The only acceptable conclusion is for Assad to be removed from power and jailed or killed. I have nothing but the utmost contempt for anybody who proposes Assad remain in power after his conduct.

I don't know. It would be better for Syrians to embrace each other regardless of religious persuasion and to build an equalitarian and peaceful democracy, yes of course. Now, would that be the outcome if the rebels win?

Imagine, for a minute, that you are Syrian. There is no question that, when presented with a popular uprising Assad reacted with repression, and when presented with revolt as a result of that he reacted with mass-killing of civilians. Tens of thousands by any estimate. Do you want to embrace him now?

These are the kinds of double-standards that I'm forever getting posts deleted for pointing out, but in my country elected representatives resign due to investigations or rumors of corruption, yet in Syria people should forgive and forget the crimes of a dictator and known mass-murdering? Laughable.

Iraq got rid of a murderous despot a decade ago.

No, the US deposed him and placed its flunkies in power, as well as paid off, sequentially, Shia and Sunni militias to try and maintain order after it dispanded the army. The problems in Iraq following the ouster of Saddam Hussein are US entirely US creations.

Yet there could have been a domestic overthrow of Hussein in the aftermath of the first Gulf War, except that the US abandoned its allies in Iraq and allowed Hussein to retain chemical weapons and attack helicopters to crush that rebellion, killing thousands or tens of thousands. They do so intentionally to keep him in power in the name of stability.

The bottom line is that no foreigner knows for sure what is best for Syrians.

I agree.

[Ibrahim]

I have yet to read a report that suggests that the rebels are gaining ground.
It is mostly they hold it then retreat when the bombs come raining in.

The area in which the can attack is increasing, and they are hitting more targets, and targets closer to Damascus, all the time. This shows that the Assad regime is losing full control over greater areas of the country, and is limited to punitive air strikes and artillery barrages. Lacking any air support or counter-battery capabilities naturally the rebels withdraw to strike again elsewhere.

Though their ability to keep striking again and again demonstrates the weakness of the regime. If there were some kind of Libya-style air campaign to destroy Assad's airstrike and artillery capabilities then he would already have fled the country.

Actually, the latest I read today was that the support in the form of money and weapons is drying up.

I guess hand-wringers won out and people are worried about backing an unknown. Result: tacit support for a known mass-murdering dictator, who continues to receive arms from Russia without concern. Good job.

Anybody see or hear about the video of the 11 year old that used a knife to chop off the head of a Syrian (Alawi) officer to the cheers of fighters around him? 11 years old. Does anybody really need to ask what direction Syria is going to head in even if Asad falls and the rebels 'win'?

Yeah, that's bad. Almost as bad as the murder of thousands of children by the Assad regime (or hundreds by the US bombing campaigns, but that's another topic), which nobody gives a lavender about.

Let me tell you something that is absolutely true: things will only get more brutal all over this world. Globally civility peaked in the 90's and its only downhill from here on out. Cheer for your favorite murderers on TV, like football teams.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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Read the comments Azari.
This kind of hostility is now rampant. I don't expect the Arabs to back Iran anytime soon.

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/6767 ... soner-swap

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Over 80 dead in two rocket explosions at Aleppo University as students take exams


Hans, ask yourself who is killing Arab university students, next generation Arab scientists

Are Iranians doing this

Same people that killed Iranian scientist also kill Arab scientists

Syrian woman raped and future scientists killed

Arab Joe sleeping, is fooled by the devil

Yes, true, Iran is the bad guy

what a shame .. what a shame


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[Heracleum Persicum]

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NYT : The opposition has failed to shape a political strategy to win over its countrymen.


well, Ibrahim, Hans, told you guys, Syrians do not want Wahhabi & Salafi, they want Assad secularism

As the Syrian civil war nears the two-year mark, the opponents of President Bashar al-Assad and their international backers have failed to win the backing of many government supporters, including minorities, a slice of the population whose help is essential not only to resolve the conflict, but also to keep Syria from becoming a failed state, analysts say.

Poor Arab Joe, fooled again



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[Hans Bulvai]

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Read the comments Azari.
This kind of hostility is now rampant. I don't expect the Arabs to back Iran anytime soon.

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/6767 ... soner-swap

.

Over 80 dead in two rocket explosions at Aleppo University as students take exams


Hans, ask yourself who is killing Arab university students, next generation Arab scientists

Are Iranians doing this

Same people that killed Iranian scientist also kill Arab scientists

Syrian woman raped and future scientists killed

Arab Joe sleeping, is fooled by the devil

Yes, true, Iran is the bad guy

what a shame .. what a shame


.

We know who is killing them and it ain't Iran.
Hey look, I agree with you as to who the real problem in that space is. No argument from me.
It will be a good day when those big useless skyscrapers sink into the sand (That day is coming by the way. Deserts are not made for building and holding skyscrapers).

Read an opinion piece by an informed guy. He saif 15% support Asad, 15% support the "rebels" and the rest just want to be able to live and any notion they had of 'freedom' has disappeared.
Look, these same people who are critical of Iran, have much harsher words for the Sauds. Much harsher. But they see this as a power struggle between Iran and Saudia (along with their allies of course) and they want none of it.

I don't agree with what most of these guys post. To me, they see things too much in black and white and it ain't so.

[Hans Bulvai]

.


NYT : The opposition has failed to shape a political strategy to win over its countrymen.


well, Ibrahim, Hans, told you guys, Syrians do not want Wahhabi & Salafi, they want Assad secularism

As the Syrian civil war nears the two-year mark, the opponents of President Bashar al-Assad and their international backers have failed to win the backing of many government supporters, including minorities, a slice of the population whose help is essential not only to resolve the conflict, but also to keep Syria from becoming a failed state, analysts say.

Poor Arab Joe, fooled again



.

Abdullah of Jordan gave an interview to a French newspaper. He told it straight up that Asad is in much stronger position than is being led on by the international media. Long gone are the days when presidents and prime ministers are out there giving us time frames as to when Asad will be gone.

Poor Arab joe. Killed again.

[Heracleum Persicum]

.

Hans , fact is,

ME people have awaken .. no dictatorship, neither military, nor secular nor wahhabi/Salafi dictatorship

but

also fact that ME people, no matter which ethnic or religion, are, deeply spiritual

That leads us to "Iranian Model" .. school of Rumi-Islam, live and let live

Assad will lead the Syrian civilization and Culture, Syrian people, to an orderly reform

But

Turkey, Morsi, Mossad, Qatar, CIA, Cameron, Hollande, Wahhabi do not want that .. they want wahhabi dictatorship for Syrian people

Turkey, Egypt, even Saudi, bit by bit, discovering, only solution is Iranian proposed solution


.

[monster_gardener]

I guess technically it could drag on as a civil war interminably until he died of natural causes, but he seems too young. All indications from reporters on the ground say that the rebels are either gaining ground or its a stalemate, which doesn't bode well for the regime. Hence their crude tactics of mass civilian murder using long-range weaponry.

Reports of lost ground don't bode well for the regime, indeed.
However the progression of wars is not necessarily linear. If the regime was in a desperate position on the ground, I would agree to say "Assad will leave power", but I don't know of convincing reports that the regime position would be militarily hopeless.

The only acceptable conclusion is for Assad to be removed from power and jailed or killed. I have nothing but the utmost contempt for anybody who proposes Assad remain in power after his conduct.

I don't know. It would be better for Syrians to embrace each other regardless of religious persuasion and to build an equalitarian and peaceful democracy, yes of course. Now, would that be the outcome if the rebels win?

Iraq got rid of a murderous despot a decade ago. But the result was interreligious civil wars, expulsion and "cleansings", anarchy added to foreign occupation. Sufferings of the Iraqi population were much worse than under Hussein, worse even than as a result of the murderous UN embargo of the 1990s.

If a rebel victory results in such a future for Syria, minus foreign occupation but with all the violence a majority can exert against minorities...

The bottom line is that no foreigner knows for sure what is best for Syrians.

Those foreigners who support one side or the other, from US to Russia including Saudia, Iran, France etc. do so for the sake of their perceived interests only. Not that it would be breaking news...

Thank you VERY MUCH for Your Post, Alexis.

Seconded.

[monster_gardener]

I have yet to read a report that suggests that the rebels are gaining ground.
It is mostly they hold it then retreat when the bombs come raining in.
Actually, the latest I read today was that the support in the form of money and weapons is drying up.
In two weeks there is supposed to be a conference in Geneva sponsored by Germany, Switzerland and Sweden with opposition elements that support dialogue with the regime.
Also interesting is a story that I missed about Saudia's top cleric forbidding jihad or calls of jihad in Syria.

Syria is headed for a de facto partition. The Kurds in the north don't even fly the Syrian flag anymore. It is all Kurdistan to them.
Hell, Even Jordan and Qatar went through a political divorce over Syria after rubbing elbows when Qaddafi fell when both sent forces to aid in his downfall.

Anybody see or hear about the video of the 11 year old that used a knife to chop off the head of a Syrian (Alawi) officer to the cheers of fighters around him? 11 years old. Does anybody really need to ask what direction Syria is going to head in even if Asad falls and the rebels 'win'?

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/com ... 33199.html

The difference in perceptions inside and outside Damascus is explained partly by the way the international and regional media describes the war. There are few foreign journalists in the Syrian capital because it is difficult to get visas. By way of contrast, the rebels have a highly sophisticated media operation – often also foreign-based – proffering immediate details of every incident, often backed up by compelling, if selective, YouTube footage.

Understandably, the rebel version of events is heavily biased towards their own side and demonises the Syrian government. More surprising is the willingness of the international media, based often in Beirut but also in London and New York, to regurgitate with so little scepticism what is essentially good-quality propaganda. It is as if, prior to the US presidential election in November, foreign journalists had been unable to obtain visas to enter the US and had instead decided to rely on Republican Party militants for their information on the campaign – moreover, Republican activists based in Mexico and Canada.

It is true that there is the rumble of artillery in Damascus, but the city is not besieged. The roads north to Homs and south to Deraa are open, as is the road to Beirut. When the rebels do capture a district, government artillery pounds it, killing some and forcing others to flee. For those living in undamaged areas of the capital, there is an ever-growing fear of what the future holds, combined with increasing difficulties in day-to-day living because of cuts in electricity and a shortage of bread and cooking gas.

The rebels are making some progress on the ground but, overall, Syrians face a political and military stalemate. The rebels' assaults on Aleppo and Damascus have faltered, but the government forces do not have the strength to push them out of enclaves they have taken over. In the north, in particular, the rebels are making ground in the countryside around Hama, Idlib and Aleppo, but their advance is still slow.

Thank you Very Much for your post, Hans......

Anybody see or hear about the video of the 11 year old that used a knife to chop off the head of a Syrian (Alawi) officer to the cheers of fighters around him?

Yes, IIRC I believe I did.......

11 years old. Does anybody really need to ask what direction Syria is going to head in even if Asad falls and the rebels 'win'?

Back in the direction that Depraved Sinful Egotistical Chaos Monkey Killer Apes have often acted historically with some spotty temporary interludes.....

There is a scene like this in Judges in the Tanakh/Old Testament where IIRC Gideon tries to get one of his sons to do this on an Amalekite leader who had killed Gideon's brothers but the boy is too tender hearted/fearful.... Despite the Amorite urging him on and insulting him....

IIRC Roman boyz often put on the Manly Gown in their early teens..........

Jewish Boyz get their Bar Mitzvah about 12........

OTOH the psychologists now claim that Chaos Monkey Cubs do not really have fully developed/programmed brains till in their 20s....

Separatism may prove to be the best practical solution for Syrians who seem not to like their neighbors.......

Alawites & Christians in their areas.....

Druse, Kurds, and Sunnis each in their own separate zones........

Other Minorities in theirs or with compatibles if they exist.........

Would be nicer if we had Hollow World Asteroids or Orbitals for each.......

But we don't......

Not yet........

[Heracleum Persicum]

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An advisor of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution has emphasized that Bashar al-Assad is Iran’s redline

... No one would intervene and say that Assad must go or remain,” he asserted.

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[Ibrahim]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featur ... 66518.html

Teaching Quran to escape Syria torture horror
Unable to witness horrific abuses, intelligence officer flees to hometown to teach Islam to children instead.

Hantoutin, Syria - Sheikh Abu Mohammad used to be an officer in a state institution considered by many Syrians to be the regime's most notorious and feared: the air force intelligence department.

A year into the uprising, however, Abu Mohammed said he could no longer tolerate the scenes of brutality he witnessed on the grounds of the headquarters in Damascus.

Anti-government protesters were frequently arrested and tortured there before they were tucked into narrow and dark dungeons, he said.

Eight months ago, Abu Mohammad, in his forties, gathered enough courage to leave his job. He said the tipping point for him was when he saw an imam being tortured in front of his eyes.

"They stepped on his beard," he said. "They humiliated him and continued to insult him and his religion.

"I was working in the administration of the air force intelligence and was not involved in running prisons or torturing detainees. But I could no longer live with myself watching atrocities in the front yard every day.

"Images from there continue to haunt me."

He fled the capital and returned to his northern hometown of Hantoutin. There, he traded his uniform for a long, white robe. He decided to pursue a longtime dream: teaching Islam to children.
...

Abu Mohammad said the idea behind the classes was not only to teach children the Quran but also to help them cope with the violence that ravages Idlib province as rebels and government forces are battling for control of strategic territory.

"Some of those attending this lesson are the sons of martyrs. Several children have lost their fathers or mothers in the shelling. They need a lot of care and emotional support. I try to provide as much as I can," he said.

He said the guilt for remaining silent about the atrocities he witnessed while working for the intelligence has disturbed him for a long time. But since he started teaching, he is feeling better about himself.

"Seeing the joy of the children when they leave the mosque brings me peace of mind."

[Azrael]

Aleppo International Airport has been closed for more than two weeks. Considering that the airport was the main supply line to Syrian regime troops, due to rebels controlling the countryside south of Aleppo, Syrian troops in Aleppo are pretty much screwed.

Aleppo will probably fall to the rebels within the next few months.

I don't expect Assad to be ruling from Damascus at the end of the year.

Maybe he'll have a statelet (for a while) by the Mediterranean, perhaps he'll hang, perhaps he'll be captured . . . who knows.

[Ibrahim]

I read in AJE that Assad has sent more of his family out of the country. His mother IIRC, and his wife has already left with their younger children.

[Azrael]

I heard the same rumors. Perhaps Assad's regime is even closer to the end than it looks. The bastard is probably wishing he had never left London.

[Heracleum Persicum]

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.
I heard the same rumors. Perhaps Assad's regime is even closer to the end than it looks.
.

Well, Azrael, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying on January 26 that :

Iran would consider any attack on Syria an attack on Iran


And


An advisor of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution has emphasized that Bashar al-Assad is Iran’s redline

... No one would intervene and say that Assad must go or remain,” he asserted.

Meaning , don't hold your breath



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[Heracleum Persicum]

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Hezbollah arose out of the Lebanese civil war of the 1970s, when Iran was able to exploit the legitimate grievances of that country’s Shiite population, a pattern it also followed in Iraq during the chaos that followed the U.S. invasion.

In a divided Syria, Iran’s natural allies would include Shiites and Alawites concentrated in provinces near Syria’s border with Lebanon and in the key port city of Latakia. Under the most likely scenarios, analysts say, remnants of Assad’s government — with or without Assad himself — would seek to establish a coastal enclave closely tied to Tehran, dependent on the Iranians for survival while helping Iran to retain its link to Hezbollah and leverage against Israel.

Experts said that Iran is less interested in preserving Assad in power than in maintaining levers of power, including transport hubs inside Syria. As long as Tehran could maintain control of an air- or seaport, they could also maintain a Hezbollah-controlled supply route into Lebanon and continue to manipulate Lebanese politics.

Preservation of an Iranian-supported area on the coast has always been “Plan C or Plan D” for core regime supporters, Salem said. “If everything fails and they lose, they have always prepared for the fortress region . . . with everything they can cart away, even if they lose Damascus.”

“That’s not necessarily what they want,” he said. “They want to hold on to the whole thing.” But the worst-case scenario is that “the whole regime relocates to the northwest, and the still have the most powerful [armed] unit inside Syria, with a lot of the current structure.”

[..]

In a grim assessment to a closed-door meeting of the United Nations Security Council last week, U.N. and Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi cited two “big risks that are of serious concern to the international community” as Syria unravels.

“The first is the transformation of Syria into a playground for competing regional forces, governments and non-state actors alike,” Brahimi said. “This process is largely underway.” The second risk, he said, is “full-fledged regionalization of the Syrian civil war” that would engulf “the whole Levant.”

Look, guys .. you started .. Iran said don't , but you did not listen

Now, Syria might become a Gaza type headache for Zionist .. damn if you do and damn if you don't

well, that's the way you guys wanted



Ibrahim fooled Hans



.

[Ibrahim]

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/i ... MU20130212

Syrian air base falls, Assad forces under pressure
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis

AMMAN (Reuters) - Syrian opposition fighters captured a military airport near the northern city of Aleppo on Tuesday in another military setback for President Bashar al-Assad's forces which have come under intensifying attack across the country.

The airport is the latest military facility to fall under rebel control in a strategic region situated between Syria's industrial and commercial center and the country's oil- and wheat-producing heartland to the east.

The opposition said an army base situated near Aleppo Airport, which is both civilian and military, was overrun by rebels seeking to neutralize Assad's air power, which has been instrumental in preventing the rebels from taking over major urban centers.

The Syrian authorities have banned most independent media from the country, making verification of events on the ground difficult.

A Middle East-based diplomat following the military situation said the opposition "appears to be making significant advances" in Aleppo and along the Euphrates River to the east.